← Back to Canadian Premier League center 中文

Canadian Premier League · Score Research

08-16 05:00 CST · Canadian Premier League · Separate HT/FT models

Ca

Cavalry FC

Home side / left market direction

Full-time first pick 1:1 Probability 26.8% · Low-total exact zone Low-total exact zone: 1:1 26.8%; 2:1 15.8%; 1:2 9.6% Half-time first pick 0:0 (63.6%)
Fo

Forge FC

Away side / right market direction

Five-Factor Read

1. Market strength Draw carries the highest weight

The Asian handicap is close to level, with no clear market gap.

2. Form and pace 0:0

HT first pick is 0:0 (63.6%); HT draw probability is 67.0%, so the model still respects early caution.

3. AI Sidecar Read FT total 2.25

This match uses a DeepSeek AI sidecar factor. The AI signal only applies a small candidate-score reweighting and does not override the market/history main model by itself. AI note: 两队防守稳健、节奏偏慢，模型首选1:1；主队攻击略占优但客队榜首实力接近，样本稀薄风险较高，倾向防守平局。

4. Venue factor non-neutral / normal weather

Venue: ATCO体育场. Non-neutral venue. Weather/temperature: 间中有云, 19°C. The schedule marks this as non-neutral, so home/away identity remains a weak background factor. Weather and temperature do not show a clear tempo-suppression signal. Together with the totals line and Under 3.5 probability, the venue layer supports a lower-tempo or lower-margin script rather than pushing the score upward.

5. Sample and soft factors Usable sample

229 comparable matches; useful for probability ranking

Full-Time Score Distribution

1:1 26.8%
2:1 15.8%
1:2 9.6%
2:2 9.4%
3:1 4.6%
2:3 4.6%
1:0 3.6%
0:0 3.3%
FT market: side line 0.00 · total 2.25 · Bucket ah_ou:0.0/2.0
Score cluster: Low-total exact zone: 1:1 26.8%; 2:1 15.8%; 1:2 9.6%

Half-Time Score Distribution

0:0 63.6%
1:0 15.2%
0:1 12.9%
1:1 3.3%
2:0 1.8%
0:2 1.5%
2:1 0.5%
1:2 0.5%
HT market: side line 0.00 · total 0.75
Cavalry FC win34.7%
Draw40.8%
Forge FC win24.4%
Cavalry FC expected goals1.60
Forge FC expected goals1.42
Under 3.567.3%
FT temperature0.95
Empirical weight74.1%
Sample size229
Europe 1X2home 37.8% / draw 28.5% / away 33.7%

Key Variables

First-goal path Cavalry FC benefits most from opening the scoring; if HT stays 0:0, the FT distribution compresses toward lower scores.
Deciding factor Draw probability is 40.8%, so the exact-score set should keep draw and one-goal-margin scripts alive.
Risk point Under 3.5 is 67.3%; if the live total moves up materially, rerun the model.

Pre-Match Update · Market Movement

Published 2026-08-25 00:38:15 CST (started/finished about 211h 29m ago) | Snapshot window: pending -> 2026-08-25 00:38:15

First snapshotFT handicap 待补 · total 待补
Latest marketFT handicap 0 · total 2.25

Movement: FT handicap data pending; FT total data pending; HT handicap data pending; HT total data pending.

Pre-match note: Market snapshots are thin; refresh Feijing data again before publishing the final pre-match version.

Final Read: 1:1

Predicted side: draw · Actual side: Cavalry FC win · side missed

Using the full-time handicap, totals, comparable market buckets and half-time market, the model's full-time first pick for Cavalry FC vs Forge FC is 1:1 (26.8%). Draw carries the highest weight. This match uses a DeepSeek AI sidecar factor. The AI signal only applies a small candidate-score reweighting and does not override the market/history main model by itself. AI note: 两队防守稳健、节奏偏慢，模型首选1:1；主队攻击略占优但客队榜首实力接近，样本稀薄风险较高，倾向防守平局。 HT first pick is 0:0 (63.6%); HT draw probability is 67.0%, so the model still respects early caution. Exact-score outputs are probability rankings for pre-match research and review.

Risk note: exact scores are low-hit-rate events. The model output is a probability ranking, not a certainty; late market moves, lineups, red cards and early goals can reshape the distribution.

Sources

Feijing · fixtures, results, Asian handicap, totals, half-time markets, Europe 1X2 · Local history database · historical market lines, full-time scores, half-time scores · DeepSeek · AI sidecar context, bounded candidate reweighting only