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08-20 07:00 CST · Canadian Premier League · Separate HT/FT models

Fo

Forge FC

Home side / left market direction

Full-time first pick 2:1 Probability 15.7% · Standard score cluster Standard score cluster: 2:1 15.7%; 3:1 11.1%; 3:2 4.6%; 2:0 3.8% Half-time first pick 0:0 (59.5%)
Su

Supra Du Quebec

Away side / right market direction

Five-Factor Read

1. Market strength Forge FC side rates higher

The handicap leans toward Forge FC; the market prices the home side as stronger.

2. Form and pace 0:0

HT first pick is 0:0 (59.5%); HT draw probability is 64.1%, so the model still respects early caution.

3. AI Sidecar Read FT total 2.75

This match uses a DeepSeek AI sidecar factor. The AI signal only applies a small candidate-score reweighting and does not override the market/history main model by itself. AI note: 主队排名实力占优且主场，市场让球0.75示好；客队进攻疲软节奏慢，但主队防线有漏，客队或偷分；整体倾向主胜但总进球可能有限。样本少，不确定性较高。

4. Venue factor non-neutral / environment pending

Venue: 蒂姆霍顿球场. Non-neutral venue. The schedule marks this as non-neutral, so home/away identity remains a weak background factor. Reliable weather detail is thin, so turf, travel distance and fan split are not added as model factors. Together with the totals line, the venue layer can support a more open upper tail.

5. Sample and soft factors Usable sample

199 comparable matches; useful for probability ranking

Full-Time Score Distribution

2:1 15.7%
3:1 11.1%
3:2 4.6%
2:0 3.8%
1:0 3.7%
4:1 2.9%
3:0 2.2%
5:1 2.2%
FT market: side line 0.75 · total 2.75 · Bucket ah_ou:0.75/3.0
Score cluster: Standard score cluster: 2:1 15.7%; 3:1 11.1%; 3:2 4.6%; 2:0 3.8%

Half-Time Score Distribution

0:0 59.5%
1:0 19.9%
0:1 9.1%
1:1 4.4%
2:0 2.7%
0:2 1.3%
2:1 1.0%
3:0 0.7%
HT market: side line 0.25 · total 1.25
Forge FC win53.8%
Draw28.3%
Supra Du Quebec win17.9%
Forge FC expected goals2.14
Supra Du Quebec expected goals1.36
Under 3.553.6%
FT temperature0.95
Empirical weight71.3%
Sample size199
Europe 1X2home 51.7% / draw 25.2% / away 23.2%

Key Variables

First-goal path Forge FC benefits most from opening the scoring; if HT stays 0:0, the FT distribution compresses toward lower scores.
Deciding factor Draw probability is 28.3%, so the exact-score set should keep draw and one-goal-margin scripts alive.
Risk point Under 3.5 is 53.6%; if the live total moves up materially, rerun the model.

Pre-Match Update · Market Movement

Published 2026-08-25 00:38:15 CST (started/finished about 113h 29m ago) | Snapshot window: pending -> 2026-08-25 00:38:15

First snapshotFT handicap 待补 · total 待补
Latest marketFT handicap 0.75 · total 2.75

Movement: FT handicap data pending; FT total data pending; HT handicap data pending; HT total data pending.

Pre-match note: Market snapshots are thin; refresh Feijing data again before publishing the final pre-match version.

Final Read: 2:1

Predicted side: Forge FC win · Actual side: Forge FC win · side aligned

Using the full-time handicap, totals, comparable market buckets and half-time market, the model's full-time first pick for Forge FC vs Supra Du Quebec is 2:1 (15.7%). Forge FC side rates higher. This match uses a DeepSeek AI sidecar factor. The AI signal only applies a small candidate-score reweighting and does not override the market/history main model by itself. AI note: 主队排名实力占优且主场，市场让球0.75示好；客队进攻疲软节奏慢，但主队防线有漏，客队或偷分；整体倾向主胜但总进球可能有限。样本少，不确定性较高。 HT first pick is 0:0 (59.5%); HT draw probability is 64.1%, so the model still respects early caution. Exact-score outputs are probability rankings for pre-match research and review.

Risk note: exact scores are low-hit-rate events. The model output is a probability ranking, not a certainty; late market moves, lineups, red cards and early goals can reshape the distribution.

Sources

Feijing · fixtures, results, Asian handicap, totals, half-time markets, Europe 1X2 · Local history database · historical market lines, full-time scores, half-time scores · DeepSeek · AI sidecar context, bounded candidate reweighting only