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08-17 00:00 CST · Canadian Premier League · Separate HT/FT models

Su

Supra Du Quebec

Home side / left market direction

Full-time first pick 1:1 Probability 17.7% · Standard score cluster Standard score cluster: 1:1 17.7%; 2:1 13.7%; 2:2 9.4%; 1:2 9.4% Half-time first pick 0:0 (61.1%)
At

Atletico Ottawa

Away side / right market direction

Five-Factor Read

1. Market strength Supra Du Quebec side rates higher

The handicap leans toward Supra Du Quebec; the market prices the home side as stronger.

2. Form and pace 0:0

HT first pick is 0:0 (61.1%); HT draw probability is 65.2%, so the model still respects early caution.

3. AI Sidecar Read FT total 3.00

This match uses a DeepSeek AI sidecar factor. The AI signal only applies a small candidate-score reweighting and does not override the market/history main model by itself. AI note: 两队节奏慢、防守数据好，主队让球但攻击乏力，客队攻击略强；样本少、阵容不确定，偏向低比分或有球平局。

4. Venue factor Non-neutral venue

Venue: venue pending. Non-neutral venue. Weather/temperature: 阴天, 21°C. The schedule marks this as non-neutral, so home/away identity remains a weak background factor. Weather and temperature do not show a clear tempo-suppression signal. Together with the totals line, the venue layer can support a more open upper tail.

5. Sample and soft factors Strong sample

259 comparable matches; market bucket support is solid

Full-Time Score Distribution

1:1 17.7%
2:1 13.7%
2:2 9.4%
1:2 9.4%
3:1 8.8%
3:2 5.4%
2:3 5.1%
4:1 3.3%
FT market: side line 0.25 · total 3.00 · Bucket ah_ou:0.25/3.0
Score cluster: Standard score cluster: 1:1 17.7%; 2:1 13.7%; 2:2 9.4%; 1:2 9.4%

Half-Time Score Distribution

0:0 61.1%
1:0 15.5%
0:1 13.1%
1:1 3.9%
2:0 2.1%
0:2 1.8%
2:1 0.8%
1:2 0.7%
HT market: side line 0.00 · total 1.25
Supra Du Quebec win44.1%
Draw30.2%
Atletico Ottawa win25.7%
Supra Du Quebec expected goals2.00
Atletico Ottawa expected goals1.59
Under 3.551.3%
FT temperature0.95
Empirical weight76.4%
Sample size259
Europe 1X2home 42.6% / draw 26.0% / away 31.4%

Key Variables

First-goal path Supra Du Quebec benefits most from opening the scoring; if HT stays 0:0, the FT distribution compresses toward lower scores.
Deciding factor Draw probability is 30.2%, so the exact-score set should keep draw and one-goal-margin scripts alive.
Risk point Under 3.5 is 51.3%; if the live total moves up materially, rerun the model.

Pre-Match Update · Market Movement

Published 2026-08-25 00:38:15 CST (started/finished about 192h 29m ago) | Snapshot window: pending -> 2026-08-25 00:38:15

First snapshotFT handicap 待补 · total 待补
Latest marketFT handicap 0.25 · total 3

Movement: FT handicap data pending; FT total data pending; HT handicap data pending; HT total data pending.

Pre-match note: Market snapshots are thin; refresh Feijing data again before publishing the final pre-match version.

Final Read: 1:1

Predicted side: Supra Du Quebec win · Actual side: Atletico Ottawa win · side missed

Using the full-time handicap, totals, comparable market buckets and half-time market, the model's full-time first pick for Supra Du Quebec vs Atletico Ottawa is 1:1 (17.7%). Supra Du Quebec side rates higher. This match uses a DeepSeek AI sidecar factor. The AI signal only applies a small candidate-score reweighting and does not override the market/history main model by itself. AI note: 两队节奏慢、防守数据好，主队让球但攻击乏力，客队攻击略强；样本少、阵容不确定，偏向低比分或有球平局。 HT first pick is 0:0 (61.1%); HT draw probability is 65.2%, so the model still respects early caution. Exact-score outputs are probability rankings for pre-match research and review.

Risk note: exact scores are low-hit-rate events. The model output is a probability ranking, not a certainty; late market moves, lineups, red cards and early goals can reshape the distribution.

Sources

Feijing · fixtures, results, Asian handicap, totals, half-time markets, Europe 1X2 · Local history database · historical market lines, full-time scores, half-time scores · DeepSeek · AI sidecar context, bounded candidate reweighting only