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08-09 08:00 CST · Canadian Premier League · Separate HT/FT models

Su

Supra Du Quebec

Home side / left market direction

Full-time first pick 1:1 Probability 16.9% · Standard score cluster Standard score cluster: 1:1 16.9%; 1:2 14.2%; 2:1 12.2%; 1:3 7.4% Half-time first pick pending (N/A)
Ca

Cavalry FC

Away side / right market direction

Five-Factor Read

1. Market strength Cavalry FC side rates higher

The handicap leans toward Cavalry FC; the market prices the away side as stronger.

2. Form and pace pending

Half-time market data is missing, so no half-time score call is shown.

3. AI Sidecar Read FT total 2.75

This match uses a DeepSeek AI sidecar factor. The AI signal only applies a small candidate-score reweighting and does not override the market/history main model by itself. AI note: 主队攻弱守稳，客队攻守均衡但节奏慢；样本薄致阵容不确定性高。总进球倾向偏低，客队小胜机会较大。

4. Venue factor Non-neutral venue

Venue: venue pending. Non-neutral venue. Weather/temperature: 间中有云, 22°C. The schedule marks this as non-neutral, so home/away identity remains a weak background factor. Weather and temperature do not show a clear tempo-suppression signal. Together with the totals line, the venue layer can support a more open upper tail.

5. Sample and soft factors Usable sample

121 comparable matches; useful for probability ranking

Full-Time Score Distribution

1:1 16.9%
1:2 14.2%
2:1 12.2%
1:3 7.4%
2:2 6.5%
0:1 5.1%
2:3 4.4%
3:1 3.6%
FT market: side line -0.50 · total 2.75 · Bucket ah_ou:-0.5/3.0
Score cluster: Standard score cluster: 1:1 16.9%; 1:2 14.2%; 2:1 12.2%; 1:3 7.4%

Half-Time Score Distribution

暂无比分分布
HT market: side line N/A · total N/A
Supra Du Quebec win28.3%
Draw28.5%
Cavalry FC win43.2%
Supra Du Quebec expected goals1.45
Cavalry FC expected goals1.76
Under 3.562.8%
FT temperature0.95
Empirical weight60.2%
Sample size121
Europe 1X2home 22.9% / draw 24.1% / away 53.1%

Key Variables

First-goal path Cavalry FC benefits most from opening the scoring; if HT stays pending, the FT distribution compresses toward lower scores.
Deciding factor Draw probability is 28.5%, so the exact-score set should keep draw and one-goal-margin scripts alive.
Risk point Under 3.5 is 62.8%; if the live total moves up materially, rerun the model.

Pre-Match Update · Market Movement

Published 2026-08-25 00:38:15 CST (started/finished about 376h 29m ago) | Snapshot window: pending -> 2026-08-25 00:38:15

First snapshotFT handicap 待补 · total 待补
Latest marketFT handicap -0.5 · total 2.75

Movement: FT handicap data pending; FT total data pending; HT handicap data pending; HT total data pending.

Pre-match note: Market snapshots are thin; refresh Feijing data again before publishing the final pre-match version.

Final Read: 1:1

Predicted side: Cavalry FC win · Actual side: draw · side missed

Using the full-time handicap, totals, comparable market buckets and half-time market, the model's full-time first pick for Supra Du Quebec vs Cavalry FC is 1:1 (16.9%). Cavalry FC side rates higher. This match uses a DeepSeek AI sidecar factor. The AI signal only applies a small candidate-score reweighting and does not override the market/history main model by itself. AI note: 主队攻弱守稳，客队攻守均衡但节奏慢；样本薄致阵容不确定性高。总进球倾向偏低，客队小胜机会较大。 Half-time market data is missing, so no half-time score call is shown. Exact-score outputs are probability rankings for pre-match research and review.

Risk note: exact scores are low-hit-rate events. The model output is a probability ranking, not a certainty; late market moves, lineups, red cards and early goals can reshape the distribution.

Sources

Feijing · fixtures, results, Asian handicap, totals, half-time markets, Europe 1X2 · Local history database · historical market lines, full-time scores, half-time scores · DeepSeek · AI sidecar context, bounded candidate reweighting only