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08-17 04:00 CST · Canadian Premier League · Separate HT/FT models

Yo

York United FC

Home side / left market direction

Full-time first pick 1:1 Probability 17.2% · Standard score cluster Standard score cluster: 1:1 17.2%; 2:1 15.7%; 1:2 9.8%; 2:2 9.2% Half-time first pick 0:0 (61.2%)
HF

HFX Wanderers FC

Away side / right market direction

Five-Factor Read

1. Market strength York United FC side rates higher

The Asian handicap is close to level, with no clear market gap.

2. Form and pace 0:0

HT first pick is 0:0 (61.2%); HT draw probability is 65.3%, so the model still respects early caution.

3. AI Sidecar Read FT total 2.75

This match uses a DeepSeek AI sidecar factor. The AI signal only applies a small candidate-score reweighting and does not override the market/history main model by itself. AI note: 双方样本少且攻弱守漏，节奏偏慢，主队微热但客队也有机会，总进球倾向偏低，可能防守平局。

4. Venue factor non-neutral / normal weather

Venue: 约克狮子体育场. Non-neutral venue. Weather/temperature: 阴天, 24°C. The schedule marks this as non-neutral, so home/away identity remains a weak background factor. Weather and temperature do not show a clear tempo-suppression signal. Together with the totals line, the venue layer can support a more open upper tail.

5. Sample and soft factors Usable sample

219 comparable matches; useful for probability ranking

Full-Time Score Distribution

1:1 17.2%
2:1 15.7%
1:2 9.8%
2:2 9.2%
1:3 5.8%
3:1 5.5%
3:2 5.0%
2:3 3.6%
FT market: side line 0.00 · total 2.75 · Bucket ah_ou:0.0/3.0
Score cluster: Standard score cluster: 1:1 17.2%; 2:1 15.7%; 1:2 9.8%; 2:2 9.2%

Half-Time Score Distribution

0:0 61.2%
1:0 15.4%
0:1 13.1%
1:1 3.9%
2:0 2.1%
0:2 1.8%
2:1 0.8%
1:2 0.7%
HT market: side line 0.00 · total 1.25
York United FC win41.4%
Draw30.2%
HFX Wanderers FC win28.3%
York United FC expected goals1.84
HFX Wanderers FC expected goals1.61
Under 3.556.1%
FT temperature0.95
Empirical weight73.2%
Sample size219
Europe 1X2home 41.1% / draw 25.1% / away 33.8%

Key Variables

First-goal path York United FC benefits most from opening the scoring; if HT stays 0:0, the FT distribution compresses toward lower scores.
Deciding factor Draw probability is 30.2%, so the exact-score set should keep draw and one-goal-margin scripts alive.
Risk point Under 3.5 is 56.1%; if the live total moves up materially, rerun the model.

Pre-Match Update · Market Movement

Published 2026-08-25 00:38:15 CST (started/finished about 188h 29m ago) | Snapshot window: pending -> 2026-08-25 00:38:15

First snapshotFT handicap 待补 · total 待补
Latest marketFT handicap 0 · total 2.75

Movement: FT handicap data pending; FT total data pending; HT handicap data pending; HT total data pending.

Pre-match note: Market snapshots are thin; refresh Feijing data again before publishing the final pre-match version.

Final Read: 1:1

Predicted side: York United FC win · Actual side: York United FC win · side aligned

Using the full-time handicap, totals, comparable market buckets and half-time market, the model's full-time first pick for York United FC vs HFX Wanderers FC is 1:1 (17.2%). York United FC side rates higher. This match uses a DeepSeek AI sidecar factor. The AI signal only applies a small candidate-score reweighting and does not override the market/history main model by itself. AI note: 双方样本少且攻弱守漏，节奏偏慢，主队微热但客队也有机会，总进球倾向偏低，可能防守平局。 HT first pick is 0:0 (61.2%); HT draw probability is 65.3%, so the model still respects early caution. Exact-score outputs are probability rankings for pre-match research and review.

Risk note: exact scores are low-hit-rate events. The model output is a probability ranking, not a certainty; late market moves, lineups, red cards and early goals can reshape the distribution.

Sources

Feijing · fixtures, results, Asian handicap, totals, half-time markets, Europe 1X2 · Local history database · historical market lines, full-time scores, half-time scores · DeepSeek · AI sidecar context, bounded candidate reweighting only