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08-24 04:00 CST · Canadian Premier League · Separate HT/FT models

Yo

York United FC

Home side / left market direction

Full-time first pick 1:1 Probability 15.0% · Standard score cluster Standard score cluster: 1:1 15.0%; 1:2 14.1%; 2:1 12.8%; 2:2 8.9% Half-time first pick 0:0 (60.9%)
Su

Supra Du Quebec

Away side / right market direction

Five-Factor Read

1. Market strength York United FC side rates higher

The handicap leans toward Supra Du Quebec; the market prices the away side as stronger.

2. Form and pace 0:0

HT first pick is 0:0 (60.9%); HT draw probability is 65.1%, so the model still respects early caution.

3. AI Sidecar Read FT total 3.00

This match uses a DeepSeek AI sidecar factor. The AI signal only applies a small candidate-score reweighting and does not override the market/history main model by itself. AI note: 两队进攻效率低，样本薄，天气雷暴可能降低节奏和进球数，主队小幅让球但实力接近，平局权重高。

4. Venue factor non-neutral / normal weather

Venue: 约克狮子体育场. Non-neutral venue. Weather/temperature: 间中有云, 20°C. The schedule marks this as non-neutral, so home/away identity remains a weak background factor. Weather and temperature do not show a clear tempo-suppression signal. Together with the totals line, the venue layer can support a more open upper tail.

5. Sample and soft factors Usable sample

178 comparable matches; useful for probability ranking

Full-Time Score Distribution

1:1 15.0%
1:2 14.1%
2:1 12.8%
2:2 8.9%
3:1 6.6%
1:3 5.2%
3:2 4.2%
1:0 3.4%
FT market: side line -0.25 · total 3.00 · Bucket ah_ou:-0.25/3.0
Score cluster: Standard score cluster: 1:1 15.0%; 1:2 14.1%; 2:1 12.8%; 2:2 8.9%

Half-Time Score Distribution

0:0 60.9%
1:0 15.2%
0:1 13.3%
1:1 4.0%
2:0 2.1%
0:2 1.9%
2:1 0.8%
1:2 0.8%
HT market: side line 0.00 · total 1.25
York United FC win37.0%
Draw27.7%
Supra Du Quebec win35.3%
York United FC expected goals1.74
Supra Du Quebec expected goals1.71
Under 3.557.0%
FT temperature0.95
Empirical weight69.0%
Sample size178
Europe 1X2home 32.2% / draw 24.5% / away 43.3%

Key Variables

First-goal path York United FC benefits most from opening the scoring; if HT stays 0:0, the FT distribution compresses toward lower scores.
Deciding factor Draw probability is 27.7%, so the exact-score set should keep draw and one-goal-margin scripts alive.
Risk point Under 3.5 is 57.0%; if the live total moves up materially, rerun the model.

Pre-Match Update · Market Movement

Published 2026-08-25 00:38:15 CST (started/finished about 20h 29m ago) | Snapshot window: pending -> 2026-08-25 00:38:15

First snapshotFT handicap 待补 · total 待补
Latest marketFT handicap -0.25 · total 3

Movement: FT handicap data pending; FT total data pending; HT handicap data pending; HT total data pending.

Pre-match note: Market snapshots are thin; refresh Feijing data again before publishing the final pre-match version.

Final Read: 1:1

Predicted side: York United FC win · Actual side: draw · side missed

Using the full-time handicap, totals, comparable market buckets and half-time market, the model's full-time first pick for York United FC vs Supra Du Quebec is 1:1 (15.0%). York United FC side rates higher. This match uses a DeepSeek AI sidecar factor. The AI signal only applies a small candidate-score reweighting and does not override the market/history main model by itself. AI note: 两队进攻效率低，样本薄，天气雷暴可能降低节奏和进球数，主队小幅让球但实力接近，平局权重高。 HT first pick is 0:0 (60.9%); HT draw probability is 65.1%, so the model still respects early caution. Exact-score outputs are probability rankings for pre-match research and review.

Risk note: exact scores are low-hit-rate events. The model output is a probability ranking, not a certainty; late market moves, lineups, red cards and early goals can reshape the distribution.

Sources

Feijing · fixtures, results, Asian handicap, totals, half-time markets, Europe 1X2 · Local history database · historical market lines, full-time scores, half-time scores · DeepSeek · AI sidecar context, bounded candidate reweighting only