Chile Cup · Score Research

08-06 08:30 CST · Chile Cup · Separate HT/FT models

Coquimbo Unido

Home side / left market direction

Full-time first pick 2:1 Probability 15.1% · Low-total exact zone Low-total exact zone: 2:1 15.1%; 1:1 12.5%; 2:0 10.7% Half-time first pick 0:0 (53.9%)

San Marcos de Arica

Away side / right market direction

Five-Factor Read

1. Market strength Coquimbo Unido side rates higher

The handicap leans toward Coquimbo Unido; the market prices the home side as stronger.

2. Form and pace 0:0

HT first pick is 0:0 (53.9%); HT draw probability is 59.1%, so the model still respects early caution.

3. AI Sidecar Read FT total 2.50

This match uses a DeepSeek AI sidecar factor. The AI signal only applies a small candidate-score reweighting and does not override the market/history main model by itself. AI note: 主队为智利甲中上游且赢面较高，但两队节奏偏慢、防守指数稳健；杯赛轮换与战意信息不足，倾向主队后段小胜，平局需防范。

4. Venue factor Non-neutral venue

Venue: venue pending. Non-neutral venue. Weather/temperature: 多云, 13°C. The schedule marks this as non-neutral, so home/away identity remains a weak background factor. Weather and temperature do not show a clear tempo-suppression signal. Together with the totals line and Under 3.5 probability, the venue layer supports a lower-tempo or lower-margin script rather than pushing the score upward.

5. Sample and soft factors Thin sample

39 comparable matches; manual review needed

Full-Time Score Distribution

2:1 15.1%

1:1 12.5%

2:0 10.7%

1:0 10.3%

3:0 6.4%

1:2 6.1%

3:1 5.9%

0:0 5.5%

FT market: side line 1.00 · total 2.50 · Bucket ah_ou:1.0/2.5

Score cluster: Low-total exact zone: 2:1 15.1%; 1:1 12.5%; 2:0 10.7%

Half-Time Score Distribution

0:0 53.9%

1:0 23.9%

0:1 8.5%

2:0 5.1%

1:1 4.9%

2:1 1.0%

3:0 1.0%

0:2 0.7%

HT market: side line 0.50 · total 1.00

Coquimbo Unido win61.1%

Draw24.2%

San Marcos de Arica win14.7%

Coquimbo Unido expected goals1.88

San Marcos de Arica expected goals0.91

Under 3.571.7%

FT temperature0.95

Empirical weight32.8%

Sample size39

Europe 1X2home 60.3% / draw 23.2% / away 16.5%

Key Variables

First-goal path Coquimbo Unido benefits most from opening the scoring; if HT stays 0:0, the FT distribution compresses toward lower scores.

Deciding factor Draw probability is 24.2%, so the exact-score set should keep draw and one-goal-margin scripts alive.

Risk point Under 3.5 is 71.7%; if the live total moves up materially, rerun the model.

Pre-Match Update · Market Movement

Published 2026-08-25 00:38:16 CST (started/finished about 448h 9m ago) | Snapshot window: pending -> 2026-08-25 00:38:16

First snapshotFT handicap 待补 · total 待补

Latest marketFT handicap 1 · total 2.5

Movement: FT handicap data pending; FT total data pending; HT handicap data pending; HT total data pending.

Pre-match note: Market snapshots are thin; refresh Feijing data again before publishing the final pre-match version.

Final Read: 2:1

Predicted side: Coquimbo Unido win · Actual side: Coquimbo Unido win · side aligned

Using the full-time handicap, totals, comparable market buckets and half-time market, the model's full-time first pick for Coquimbo Unido vs San Marcos de Arica is 2:1 (15.1%). Coquimbo Unido side rates higher. This match uses a DeepSeek AI sidecar factor. The AI signal only applies a small candidate-score reweighting and does not override the market/history main model by itself. AI note: 主队为智利甲中上游且赢面较高，但两队节奏偏慢、防守指数稳健；杯赛轮换与战意信息不足，倾向主队后段小胜，平局需防范。 HT first pick is 0:0 (53.9%); HT draw probability is 59.1%, so the model still respects early caution. Exact-score outputs are probability rankings for pre-match research and review.

Risk note: exact scores are low-hit-rate events. The model output is a probability ranking, not a certainty; late market moves, lineups, red cards and early goals can reshape the distribution.

Sources

Feijing · fixtures, results, Asian handicap, totals, half-time markets, Europe 1X2 · Local history database · historical market lines, full-time scores, half-time scores · DeepSeek · AI sidecar context, bounded candidate reweighting only