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08-06 08:30 CST · Chile Cup · Separate HT/FT models

De

Deportes Iquique

Home side / left market direction

Full-time first pick 1:1 Probability 14.7% · Standard score cluster Standard score cluster: 1:1 14.7%; 1:2 13.9%; 2:1 12.6%; 2:2 8.8% Half-time first pick 0:0 (62.0%)
De

Deportes Limache

Away side / right market direction

Five-Factor Read

1. Market strength Deportes Iquique side rates higher

The handicap leans toward Deportes Limache; the market prices the away side as stronger.

2. Form and pace 0:0

HT first pick is 0:0 (62.0%); HT draw probability is 65.8%, so the model still respects early caution.

3. AI Sidecar Read FT total 2.75

This match uses a DeepSeek AI sidecar factor. The AI signal only applies a small candidate-score reweighting and does not override the market/history main model by itself. AI note: 低级别主队主场对阵甲级客队，杯赛动机主队略强，但客队可能轮换；模型样本薄，节奏中性，总进球倾向中庸。

4. Venue factor Non-neutral venue

Venue: venue pending. Non-neutral venue. Weather/temperature: 间中有云, 20℃～21℃. The schedule marks this as non-neutral, so home/away identity remains a weak background factor. Weather and temperature do not show a clear tempo-suppression signal. Together with the totals line, the venue layer can support a more open upper tail.

5. Sample and soft factors Usable sample

178 comparable matches; useful for probability ranking

Full-Time Score Distribution

1:1 14.7%
1:2 13.9%
2:1 12.6%
2:2 8.8%
3:1 6.5%
1:3 5.0%
3:2 4.2%
1:0 3.8%
FT market: side line -0.25 · total 2.75 · Bucket ah_ou:-0.25/3.0
Score cluster: Standard score cluster: 1:1 14.7%; 1:2 13.9%; 2:1 12.6%; 2:2 8.8%

Half-Time Score Distribution

0:0 62.0%
1:0 15.3%
0:1 13.2%
1:1 3.7%
2:0 2.0%
0:2 1.7%
2:1 0.7%
1:2 0.6%
HT market: side line 0.00 · total 1.00
Deportes Iquique win37.3%
Draw27.7%
Deportes Limache win35.0%
Deportes Iquique expected goals1.73
Deportes Limache expected goals1.68
Under 3.557.6%
FT temperature0.95
Empirical weight69.0%
Sample size178
Europe 1X2home 34.9% / draw 25.1% / away 40.0%

Key Variables

First-goal path Deportes Iquique benefits most from opening the scoring; if HT stays 0:0, the FT distribution compresses toward lower scores.
Deciding factor Draw probability is 27.7%, so the exact-score set should keep draw and one-goal-margin scripts alive.
Risk point Under 3.5 is 57.6%; if the live total moves up materially, rerun the model.

Pre-Match Update · Market Movement

Published 2026-08-25 00:38:16 CST (started/finished about 448h 9m ago) | Snapshot window: pending -> 2026-08-25 00:38:16

First snapshotFT handicap 待补 · total 待补
Latest marketFT handicap -0.25 · total 2.75

Movement: FT handicap data pending; FT total data pending; HT handicap data pending; HT total data pending.

Pre-match note: Market snapshots are thin; refresh Feijing data again before publishing the final pre-match version.

Final Read: 1:1

Predicted side: Deportes Iquique win · Actual side: Deportes Iquique win · side aligned

Using the full-time handicap, totals, comparable market buckets and half-time market, the model's full-time first pick for Deportes Iquique vs Deportes Limache is 1:1 (14.7%). Deportes Iquique side rates higher. This match uses a DeepSeek AI sidecar factor. The AI signal only applies a small candidate-score reweighting and does not override the market/history main model by itself. AI note: 低级别主队主场对阵甲级客队，杯赛动机主队略强，但客队可能轮换；模型样本薄，节奏中性，总进球倾向中庸。 HT first pick is 0:0 (62.0%); HT draw probability is 65.8%, so the model still respects early caution. Exact-score outputs are probability rankings for pre-match research and review.

Risk note: exact scores are low-hit-rate events. The model output is a probability ranking, not a certainty; late market moves, lineups, red cards and early goals can reshape the distribution.

Sources

Feijing · fixtures, results, Asian handicap, totals, half-time markets, Europe 1X2 · Local history database · historical market lines, full-time scores, half-time scores · DeepSeek · AI sidecar context, bounded candidate reweighting only