Premier League · Score Research

08-22 22:00 CST · Premier League · Separate HT/FT models

Ipswich Town

Home side / left market direction

Full-time first pick 1:1 Probability 26.9% · Low-total exact zone Low-total exact zone: 1:1 26.9%; 2:1 15.8%; 1:2 9.6% Half-time first pick 0:0 (62.5%)

Sunderland A.F.C

Away side / right market direction

Five-Factor Read

1. Market strength Draw carries the highest weight

The Asian handicap is close to level, with no clear market gap.

2. Form and pace 0:0

HT first pick is 0:0 (62.5%); HT draw probability is 66.2%, so the model still respects early caution.

3. AI Sidecar Read FT total 2.25

This match uses a DeepSeek AI sidecar factor. The AI signal only applies a small candidate-score reweighting and does not override the market/history main model by itself. AI note: 主队排名略高但平局概率最大，总进球盘2.25偏小，双方风格数据有限，天气无异常，倾向保守。

4. Venue factor non-neutral / normal weather

Venue: 波特曼路球场. Non-neutral venue. Weather/temperature: 间中有云, 18℃～19℃. The schedule marks this as non-neutral, so home/away identity remains a weak background factor. Weather and temperature do not show a clear tempo-suppression signal. Together with the totals line and Under 3.5 probability, the venue layer supports a lower-tempo or lower-margin script rather than pushing the score upward.

5. Sample and soft factors Usable sample

229 comparable matches; useful for probability ranking

Full-Time Score Distribution

1:1 26.9%

2:1 15.8%

1:2 9.6%

2:2 9.4%

3:1 4.6%

2:3 4.6%

1:0 3.5%

0:0 3.3%

FT market: side line 0.00 · total 2.25 · Bucket ah_ou:0.0/2.0

Score cluster: Low-total exact zone: 1:1 26.9%; 2:1 15.8%; 1:2 9.6%

Half-Time Score Distribution

0:0 62.5%

1:0 15.2%

0:1 13.1%

1:1 3.6%

2:0 1.9%

0:2 1.7%

2:1 0.6%

1:2 0.6%

HT market: side line 0.00 · total 1.00

Ipswich Town win34.4%

Draw41.0%

Sunderland A.F.C win24.6%

Ipswich Town expected goals1.60

Sunderland A.F.C expected goals1.43

Under 3.567.1%

FT temperature0.95

Empirical weight74.1%

Sample size229

Europe 1X2home 33.6% / draw 29.9% / away 36.4%

Key Variables

First-goal path Ipswich Town benefits most from opening the scoring; if HT stays 0:0, the FT distribution compresses toward lower scores.

Deciding factor Draw probability is 41.0%, so the exact-score set should keep draw and one-goal-margin scripts alive.

Risk point Under 3.5 is 67.1%; if the live total moves up materially, rerun the model.

Pre-Match Update · Market Movement

Published 2026-08-25 00:37:40 CST (started/finished about 50h 38m ago) | Snapshot window: pending -> 2026-08-25 00:37:40

First snapshotFT handicap 待补 · total 待补

Latest marketFT handicap 0 · total 2.25

Movement: FT handicap data pending; FT total data pending; HT handicap data pending; HT total data pending.

Pre-match note: Market snapshots are thin; refresh Feijing data again before publishing the final pre-match version.

Final Read: 1:1

Predicted side: draw · Actual side: Ipswich Town win · side missed

Using the full-time handicap, totals, comparable market buckets and half-time market, the model's full-time first pick for Ipswich Town vs Sunderland A.F.C is 1:1 (26.9%). Draw carries the highest weight. This match uses a DeepSeek AI sidecar factor. The AI signal only applies a small candidate-score reweighting and does not override the market/history main model by itself. AI note: 主队排名略高但平局概率最大，总进球盘2.25偏小，双方风格数据有限，天气无异常，倾向保守。 HT first pick is 0:0 (62.5%); HT draw probability is 66.2%, so the model still respects early caution. Exact-score outputs are probability rankings for pre-match research and review.

Risk note: exact scores are low-hit-rate events. The model output is a probability ranking, not a certainty; late market moves, lineups, red cards and early goals can reshape the distribution.

Sources

Feijing · fixtures, results, Asian handicap, totals, half-time markets, Europe 1X2 · Local history database · historical market lines, full-time scores, half-time scores · DeepSeek · AI sidecar context, bounded candidate reweighting only