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08-08 02:45 CST · Ireland First Division · Separate HT/FT models

Br

Bray Wanderers

Home side / left market direction

Full-time first pick 2:1 Probability 11.8% · High-total score cluster High-total score cluster: 2:1 11.8%; 3:1 10.2%; 3:2 5.9%; 4:1 5.6%; 3:0 4.9%; 5:1 4.1%; 4:0 3.9%; 4:2 3.7% Half-time first pick 0:0 (39.7%)
Fi

Finn Harps

Away side / right market direction

Five-Factor Read

1. Market strength Bray Wanderers side rates higher

The handicap leans toward Bray Wanderers; the market prices the home side as stronger.

2. Form and pace 0:0

HT first pick is 0:0 (39.7%); HT draw probability is 47.4%, so the model still respects early caution.

3. AI Sidecar Read FT total 3.50

This match uses a DeepSeek AI sidecar factor. The AI signal only applies a small candidate-score reweighting and does not override the market/history main model by itself. AI note: 主队排名高、攻击强且主场作战，压制明显；客队样本薄、攻击弱，偷分机会低。节奏可能开放但总进球有上限。

4. Venue factor non-neutral / normal weather

Venue: 卡莱尔庭园球场. Non-neutral venue. Weather/temperature: 多云, 11℃～12℃. The schedule marks this as non-neutral, so home/away identity remains a weak background factor. Weather and temperature do not show a clear tempo-suppression signal. Together with the totals line, the venue layer can support a more open upper tail.

5. Sample and soft factors Usable sample

174 comparable matches; useful for probability ranking

Full-Time Score Distribution

2:1 11.8%
3:1 10.2%
1:1 9.2%
3:2 5.9%
1:2 5.7%
4:1 5.6%
2:0 5.2%
2:2 5.1%
FT market: side line 1.75 · total 3.50 · Bucket side_ou:home_favored/3.5
Score cluster: High-total score cluster: 2:1 11.8%; 3:1 10.2%; 3:2 5.9%; 4:1 5.6%; 3:0 4.9%; 5:1 4.1%; 4:0 3.9%; 4:2 3.7%

Half-Time Score Distribution

0:0 39.7%
1:0 24.7%
2:0 12.0%
1:1 7.3%
0:1 5.8%
3:0 2.7%
0:2 2.1%
2:1 1.9%
HT market: side line 0.75 · total 1.50
Bray Wanderers win68.3%
Draw17.9%
Finn Harps win13.8%
Bray Wanderers expected goals2.70
Finn Harps expected goals1.27
Under 3.542.8%
FT temperature0.95
Empirical weight55.0%
Sample size174
Europe 1X2home 75.0% / draw 14.9% / away 10.1%

Key Variables

First-goal path Bray Wanderers benefits most from opening the scoring; if HT stays 0:0, the FT distribution compresses toward lower scores.
Deciding factor Draw probability is 17.9%, so the exact-score set should keep draw and one-goal-margin scripts alive.
Risk point Under 3.5 is 42.8%; if the live total moves up materially, rerun the model.

Pre-Match Update · Market Movement

Published 2026-08-25 00:38:13 CST (started/finished about 405h 54m ago) | Snapshot window: pending -> 2026-08-25 00:38:13

First snapshotFT handicap 待补 · total 待补
Latest marketFT handicap 1.75 · total 3.5

Movement: FT handicap data pending; FT total data pending; HT handicap data pending; HT total data pending.

Pre-match note: Market snapshots are thin; refresh Feijing data again before publishing the final pre-match version.

Final Read: 2:1

Predicted side: Bray Wanderers win · Actual side: Bray Wanderers win · side aligned

Using the full-time handicap, totals, comparable market buckets and half-time market, the model's full-time first pick for Bray Wanderers vs Finn Harps is 2:1 (11.8%). Bray Wanderers side rates higher. This match uses a DeepSeek AI sidecar factor. The AI signal only applies a small candidate-score reweighting and does not override the market/history main model by itself. AI note: 主队排名高、攻击强且主场作战，压制明显；客队样本薄、攻击弱，偷分机会低。节奏可能开放但总进球有上限。 HT first pick is 0:0 (39.7%); HT draw probability is 47.4%, so the model still respects early caution. Exact-score outputs are probability rankings for pre-match research and review.

Risk note: exact scores are low-hit-rate events. The model output is a probability ranking, not a certainty; late market moves, lineups, red cards and early goals can reshape the distribution.

Sources

Feijing · fixtures, results, Asian handicap, totals, half-time markets, Europe 1X2 · Local history database · historical market lines, full-time scores, half-time scores · DeepSeek · AI sidecar context, bounded candidate reweighting only