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08-08 02:45 CST · Ireland First Division · Separate HT/FT models

Co

Cobh Ramblers

Home side / left market direction

Full-time first pick 1:1 Probability 29.2% · Low-total exact zone Low-total exact zone: 1:1 29.2%; 2:1 14.9%; 1:2 12.0% Half-time first pick 0:0 (62.4%)
Tr

Treaty United

Away side / right market direction

Five-Factor Read

1. Market strength Draw carries the highest weight

The handicap leans toward Cobh Ramblers; the market prices the home side as stronger.

2. Form and pace 0:0

HT first pick is 0:0 (62.4%); HT draw probability is 66.1%, so the model still respects early caution.

3. AI Sidecar Read FT total 2.25

This match uses a DeepSeek AI sidecar factor. The AI signal only applies a small candidate-score reweighting and does not override the market/history main model by itself. AI note: 双方进攻效率偏低，客队防守型，整体节奏慢；平局概率高，半场0:0可能性大，倾向小比分。

4. Venue factor Non-neutral venue

Venue: venue pending. Non-neutral venue. Weather/temperature: 多云, 11℃～12℃. The schedule marks this as non-neutral, so home/away identity remains a weak background factor. Weather and temperature do not show a clear tempo-suppression signal. Together with the totals line and Under 3.5 probability, the venue layer supports a lower-tempo or lower-margin script rather than pushing the score upward.

5. Sample and soft factors Strong sample

299 comparable matches; market bucket support is solid

Full-Time Score Distribution

1:1 29.2%
2:1 14.9%
1:2 12.0%
2:2 9.1%
3:1 6.4%
3:2 3.8%
1:0 3.1%
2:0 2.8%
FT market: side line 0.25 · total 2.25 · Bucket ah_ou:0.25/2.0
Score cluster: Low-total exact zone: 1:1 29.2%; 2:1 14.9%; 1:2 12.0%

Half-Time Score Distribution

0:0 62.4%
1:0 15.4%
0:1 13.0%
1:1 3.6%
2:0 2.0%
0:2 1.6%
2:1 0.6%
1:2 0.6%
HT market: side line 0.00 · total 1.00
Cobh Ramblers win35.8%
Draw41.7%
Treaty United win22.5%
Cobh Ramblers expected goals1.62
Treaty United expected goals1.37
Under 3.569.0%
FT temperature0.95
Empirical weight78.9%
Sample size299
Europe 1X2home 39.8% / draw 27.5% / away 32.7%

Key Variables

First-goal path Cobh Ramblers benefits most from opening the scoring; if HT stays 0:0, the FT distribution compresses toward lower scores.
Deciding factor Draw probability is 41.7%, so the exact-score set should keep draw and one-goal-margin scripts alive.
Risk point Under 3.5 is 69.0%; if the live total moves up materially, rerun the model.

Pre-Match Update · Market Movement

Published 2026-08-25 00:38:13 CST (started/finished about 405h 24m ago) | Snapshot window: pending -> 2026-08-25 00:38:13

First snapshotFT handicap 待补 · total 待补
Latest marketFT handicap 0.25 · total 2.25

Movement: FT handicap data pending; FT total data pending; HT handicap data pending; HT total data pending.

Pre-match note: Market snapshots are thin; refresh Feijing data again before publishing the final pre-match version.

Final Read: 1:1

Predicted side: draw · Actual side: Cobh Ramblers win · side missed

Using the full-time handicap, totals, comparable market buckets and half-time market, the model's full-time first pick for Cobh Ramblers vs Treaty United is 1:1 (29.2%). Draw carries the highest weight. This match uses a DeepSeek AI sidecar factor. The AI signal only applies a small candidate-score reweighting and does not override the market/history main model by itself. AI note: 双方进攻效率偏低，客队防守型，整体节奏慢；平局概率高，半场0:0可能性大，倾向小比分。 HT first pick is 0:0 (62.4%); HT draw probability is 66.1%, so the model still respects early caution. Exact-score outputs are probability rankings for pre-match research and review.

Risk note: exact scores are low-hit-rate events. The model output is a probability ranking, not a certainty; late market moves, lineups, red cards and early goals can reshape the distribution.

Sources

Feijing · fixtures, results, Asian handicap, totals, half-time markets, Europe 1X2 · Local history database · historical market lines, full-time scores, half-time scores · DeepSeek · AI sidecar context, bounded candidate reweighting only