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08-22 02:45 CST · Ireland First Division · Separate HT/FT models

Tr

Treaty United

Home side / left market direction

Full-time first pick 1:2 Probability 14.6% · Standard score cluster Standard score cluster: 1:2 14.6%; 0:1 8.7%; 1:3 8.6%; 0:2 6.4% Half-time first pick 0:0 (45.7%)
Co

Cork City

Away side / right market direction

Five-Factor Read

1. Market strength Cork City side rates higher

The handicap leans toward Cork City; the market prices the away side as stronger.

2. Form and pace 0:0

HT first pick is 0:0 (45.7%); HT draw probability is 53.4%, so the model still respects early caution.

3. AI Sidecar Read FT total 2.75

This match uses a DeepSeek AI sidecar factor. The AI signal only applies a small candidate-score reweighting and does not override the market/history main model by itself. AI note: 客队科克城排名榜首实力占优，主队防守弱且节奏偏慢，市场让球-1显示信心，概率模型指向客队小胜。阵容信息缺失，风险中等。

4. Venue factor Non-neutral venue

Venue: venue pending. Non-neutral venue. Weather/temperature: 天晴, 15°C. The schedule marks this as non-neutral, so home/away identity remains a weak background factor. Weather and temperature do not show a clear tempo-suppression signal. Together with the totals line, the venue layer can support a more open upper tail.

5. Sample and soft factors Usable sample

73 comparable matches; useful for probability ranking

Full-Time Score Distribution

1:2 14.6%
0:1 8.7%
1:3 8.6%
0:2 6.4%
1:4 5.2%
0:3 3.8%
2:3 3.7%
2:4 1.9%
FT market: side line -1.00 · total 2.75 · Bucket ah_ou:-1.0/3.0
Score cluster: Standard score cluster: 1:2 14.6%; 0:1 8.7%; 1:3 8.6%; 0:2 6.4%

Half-Time Score Distribution

0:0 45.7%
0:1 23.9%
1:0 10.1%
1:1 7.4%
0:2 7.2%
1:2 1.7%
0:3 1.2%
2:0 1.0%
HT market: side line -0.50 · total 1.25
Treaty United win17.5%
Draw25.5%
Cork City win57.1%
Treaty United expected goals1.13
Cork City expected goals1.93
Under 3.563.4%
FT temperature0.95
Empirical weight47.7%
Sample size73
Europe 1X2home 16.0% / draw 22.2% / away 61.9%

Key Variables

First-goal path Cork City benefits most from opening the scoring; if HT stays 0:0, the FT distribution compresses toward lower scores.
Deciding factor Draw probability is 25.5%, so the exact-score set should keep draw and one-goal-margin scripts alive.
Risk point Under 3.5 is 63.4%; if the live total moves up materially, rerun the model.

Pre-Match Update · Market Movement

Published 2026-08-25 00:38:13 CST (started/finished about 69h 54m ago) | Snapshot window: pending -> 2026-08-25 00:38:13

First snapshotFT handicap 待补 · total 待补
Latest marketFT handicap -1 · total 2.75

Movement: FT handicap data pending; FT total data pending; HT handicap data pending; HT total data pending.

Pre-match note: Market snapshots are thin; refresh Feijing data again before publishing the final pre-match version.

Final Read: 1:2

Predicted side: Cork City win · Actual side: draw · side missed

Using the full-time handicap, totals, comparable market buckets and half-time market, the model's full-time first pick for Treaty United vs Cork City is 1:2 (14.6%). Cork City side rates higher. This match uses a DeepSeek AI sidecar factor. The AI signal only applies a small candidate-score reweighting and does not override the market/history main model by itself. AI note: 客队科克城排名榜首实力占优，主队防守弱且节奏偏慢，市场让球-1显示信心，概率模型指向客队小胜。阵容信息缺失，风险中等。 HT first pick is 0:0 (45.7%); HT draw probability is 53.4%, so the model still respects early caution. Exact-score outputs are probability rankings for pre-match research and review.

Risk note: exact scores are low-hit-rate events. The model output is a probability ranking, not a certainty; late market moves, lineups, red cards and early goals can reshape the distribution.

Sources

Feijing · fixtures, results, Asian handicap, totals, half-time markets, Europe 1X2 · Local history database · historical market lines, full-time scores, half-time scores · DeepSeek · AI sidecar context, bounded candidate reweighting only