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Ireland First Division · Score Research

08-22 02:45 CST · Ireland First Division · Separate HT/FT models

We

Wexford (Youth)

Home side / left market direction

Full-time first pick 1:1 Probability 18.4% · Standard score cluster Standard score cluster: 1:1 18.4%; 2:1 14.0%; 1:2 9.5%; 2:2 9.2% Half-time first pick 0:0 (62.0%)
At

Athlone Town

Away side / right market direction

Five-Factor Read

1. Market strength Wexford (Youth) side rates higher

The handicap leans toward Wexford (Youth); the market prices the home side as stronger.

2. Form and pace 0:0

HT first pick is 0:0 (62.0%); HT draw probability is 65.8%, so the model still respects early caution.

3. AI Sidecar Read FT total 2.75

This match uses a DeepSeek AI sidecar factor. The AI signal only applies a small candidate-score reweighting and does not override the market/history main model by itself. AI note: 双方攻击力弱、节奏慢，半场0:0概率极高；主队让平半但进攻效率低，客队防守稳固，总进球倾向低。

4. Venue factor Non-neutral venue

Venue: venue pending. Non-neutral venue. Weather/temperature: 间中有云, 12℃～13℃. The schedule marks this as non-neutral, so home/away identity remains a weak background factor. Weather and temperature do not show a clear tempo-suppression signal. Together with the totals line, the venue layer can support a more open upper tail.

5. Sample and soft factors Strong sample

259 comparable matches; market bucket support is solid

Full-Time Score Distribution

1:1 18.4%
2:1 14.0%
1:2 9.5%
2:2 9.2%
3:1 8.7%
3:2 5.1%
2:3 4.8%
4:1 3.2%
FT market: side line 0.25 · total 2.75 · Bucket ah_ou:0.25/3.0
Score cluster: Standard score cluster: 1:1 18.4%; 2:1 14.0%; 1:2 9.5%; 2:2 9.2%

Half-Time Score Distribution

0:0 62.0%
1:0 15.5%
0:1 13.0%
1:1 3.7%
2:0 2.0%
0:2 1.6%
2:1 0.7%
1:2 0.6%
HT market: side line 0.00 · total 1.00
Wexford (Youth) win43.8%
Draw30.8%
Athlone Town win25.4%
Wexford (Youth) expected goals1.95
Athlone Town expected goals1.55
Under 3.553.6%
FT temperature0.95
Empirical weight76.4%
Sample size259
Europe 1X2home 41.0% / draw 25.6% / away 33.4%

Key Variables

First-goal path Wexford (Youth) benefits most from opening the scoring; if HT stays 0:0, the FT distribution compresses toward lower scores.
Deciding factor Draw probability is 30.8%, so the exact-score set should keep draw and one-goal-margin scripts alive.
Risk point Under 3.5 is 53.6%; if the live total moves up materially, rerun the model.

Pre-Match Update · Market Movement

Published 2026-08-25 00:38:13 CST (started/finished about 69h 54m ago) | Snapshot window: pending -> 2026-08-25 00:38:13

First snapshotFT handicap 待补 · total 待补
Latest marketFT handicap 0.25 · total 2.75

Movement: FT handicap data pending; FT total data pending; HT handicap data pending; HT total data pending.

Pre-match note: Market snapshots are thin; refresh Feijing data again before publishing the final pre-match version.

Final Read: 1:1

Predicted side: Wexford (Youth) win · Actual side: Athlone Town win · side missed

Using the full-time handicap, totals, comparable market buckets and half-time market, the model's full-time first pick for Wexford (Youth) vs Athlone Town is 1:1 (18.4%). Wexford (Youth) side rates higher. This match uses a DeepSeek AI sidecar factor. The AI signal only applies a small candidate-score reweighting and does not override the market/history main model by itself. AI note: 双方攻击力弱、节奏慢，半场0:0概率极高；主队让平半但进攻效率低，客队防守稳固，总进球倾向低。 HT first pick is 0:0 (62.0%); HT draw probability is 65.8%, so the model still respects early caution. Exact-score outputs are probability rankings for pre-match research and review.

Risk note: exact scores are low-hit-rate events. The model output is a probability ranking, not a certainty; late market moves, lineups, red cards and early goals can reshape the distribution.

Sources

Feijing · fixtures, results, Asian handicap, totals, half-time markets, Europe 1X2 · Local history database · historical market lines, full-time scores, half-time scores · DeepSeek · AI sidecar context, bounded candidate reweighting only