K League · Score Research

08-08 19:00 CST · K League · Separate HT/FT models

FC Anyang

Home side / left market direction

Full-time first pick 1:1 Probability 19.7% · Low-total exact zone Low-total exact zone: 1:1 19.7%; 2:1 12.2%; 1:2 10.1% Half-time first pick 0:0 (62.4%)

Daejeon Citizen

Away side / right market direction

Five-Factor Read

1. Market strength FC Anyang side rates higher

The handicap leans toward Daejeon Citizen; the market prices the away side as stronger.

2. Form and pace 0:0

HT first pick is 0:0 (62.4%); HT draw probability is 66.1%, so the model still respects early caution.

3. AI Sidecar Read FT total 2.50

This match uses a DeepSeek AI sidecar factor. The AI signal only applies a small candidate-score reweighting and does not override the market/history main model by itself. AI note: 两队攻防指数均偏弱且样本少，高温天气压低节奏；主队小让但让球盘浅，概率接近，倾向小比分平局或主队一球差。

4. Venue factor Non-neutral venue

Venue: venue pending. Non-neutral venue. Weather/temperature: 天晴, 32℃～33℃. The schedule marks this as non-neutral, so home/away identity remains a weak background factor. Higher temperature raises fatigue risk and late-game tempo drop risk. Together with the totals line and Under 3.5 probability, the venue layer supports a lower-tempo or lower-margin script rather than pushing the score upward.

5. Sample and soft factors Usable sample

81 comparable matches; useful for probability ranking

Full-Time Score Distribution

1:1 19.7%

2:1 12.2%

1:2 10.1%

2:2 7.5%

0:1 6.2%

1:0 5.3%

0:0 5.1%

3:1 4.9%

FT market: side line -0.25 · total 2.50 · Bucket ah_ou:-0.25/2.5

Score cluster: Low-total exact zone: 1:1 19.7%; 2:1 12.2%; 1:2 10.1%

Half-Time Score Distribution

0:0 62.4%

1:0 15.1%

0:1 13.3%

1:1 3.6%

2:0 1.9%

0:2 1.7%

2:1 0.6%

1:2 0.6%

HT market: side line 0.00 · total 1.00

FC Anyang win34.8%

Draw34.1%

Daejeon Citizen win31.1%

FC Anyang expected goals1.48

Daejeon Citizen expected goals1.40

Under 3.568.6%

FT temperature0.95

Empirical weight50.3%

Sample size81

Europe 1X2home 30.8% / draw 28.0% / away 41.1%

Key Variables

First-goal path FC Anyang benefits most from opening the scoring; if HT stays 0:0, the FT distribution compresses toward lower scores.

Deciding factor Draw probability is 34.1%, so the exact-score set should keep draw and one-goal-margin scripts alive.

Risk point Under 3.5 is 68.6%; if the live total moves up materially, rerun the model.

Pre-Match Update · Market Movement

Published 2026-08-25 00:37:54 CST (started/finished about 389h 38m ago) | Snapshot window: pending -> 2026-08-25 00:37:54

First snapshotFT handicap 待补 · total 待补

Latest marketFT handicap -0.25 · total 2.5

Movement: FT handicap data pending; FT total data pending; HT handicap data pending; HT total data pending.

Pre-match note: Market snapshots are thin; refresh Feijing data again before publishing the final pre-match version.

Final Read: 1:1

Predicted side: FC Anyang win · Actual side: Daejeon Citizen win · side missed

Using the full-time handicap, totals, comparable market buckets and half-time market, the model's full-time first pick for FC Anyang vs Daejeon Citizen is 1:1 (19.7%). FC Anyang side rates higher. This match uses a DeepSeek AI sidecar factor. The AI signal only applies a small candidate-score reweighting and does not override the market/history main model by itself. AI note: 两队攻防指数均偏弱且样本少，高温天气压低节奏；主队小让但让球盘浅，概率接近，倾向小比分平局或主队一球差。 HT first pick is 0:0 (62.4%); HT draw probability is 66.1%, so the model still respects early caution. Exact-score outputs are probability rankings for pre-match research and review.

Risk note: exact scores are low-hit-rate events. The model output is a probability ranking, not a certainty; late market moves, lineups, red cards and early goals can reshape the distribution.

Sources

Feijing · fixtures, results, Asian handicap, totals, half-time markets, Europe 1X2 · Local history database · historical market lines, full-time scores, half-time scores · DeepSeek · AI sidecar context, bounded candidate reweighting only