K League · Score Research

08-08 19:00 CST · K League · Separate HT/FT models

Gimcheon Sangmu FC

Home side / left market direction

Full-time first pick 1:1 Probability 19.5% · Low-total exact zone Low-total exact zone: 1:1 19.5%; 1:2 10.6%; 2:1 8.6% Half-time first pick 0:0 (58.6%)

FC Seoul

Away side / right market direction

Five-Factor Read

1. Market strength FC Seoul side rates higher

The handicap leans toward FC Seoul; the market prices the away side as stronger.

2. Form and pace 0:0

HT first pick is 0:0 (58.6%); HT draw probability is 64.1%, so the model still respects early caution.

3. AI Sidecar Read FT total 2.50

This match uses a DeepSeek AI sidecar factor. The AI signal only applies a small candidate-score reweighting and does not override the market/history main model by itself. AI note: 两队进攻指数均偏低，节奏指数为负，高温天气影响体能，总进球倾向不高；客队防守稳固但攻击一般，主队主场机会有限，平局概率较大。

4. Venue factor non-neutral / heat

Venue: 金泉综合运动场. Non-neutral venue. Weather/temperature: 天晴, 32℃～33℃. The schedule marks this as non-neutral, so home/away identity remains a weak background factor. Higher temperature raises fatigue risk and late-game tempo drop risk. Together with the totals line and Under 3.5 probability, the venue layer supports a lower-tempo or lower-margin script rather than pushing the score upward.

5. Sample and soft factors Usable sample

53 comparable matches; useful for probability ranking

Full-Time Score Distribution

1:1 19.5%

1:2 10.6%

2:1 8.6%

0:1 8.1%

2:2 7.0%

1:0 6.2%

0:0 5.4%

0:2 5.1%

FT market: side line -0.50 · total 2.50 · Bucket ah_ou:-0.5/2.5

Score cluster: Low-total exact zone: 1:1 19.5%; 1:2 10.6%; 2:1 8.6%

Half-Time Score Distribution

0:0 58.6%

0:1 16.7%

1:0 12.5%

1:1 5.4%

0:2 3.2%

2:0 1.9%

1:2 0.6%

0:3 0.4%

HT market: side line -0.25 · total 1.00

Gimcheon Sangmu FC win27.8%

Draw33.0%

FC Seoul win39.2%

Gimcheon Sangmu FC expected goals1.28

FC Seoul expected goals1.51

Under 3.569.4%

FT temperature0.95

Empirical weight39.8%

Sample size53

Europe 1X2home 27.2% / draw 26.4% / away 46.4%

Key Variables

First-goal path FC Seoul benefits most from opening the scoring; if HT stays 0:0, the FT distribution compresses toward lower scores.

Deciding factor Draw probability is 33.0%, so the exact-score set should keep draw and one-goal-margin scripts alive.

Risk point Under 3.5 is 69.4%; if the live total moves up materially, rerun the model.

Pre-Match Update · Market Movement

Published 2026-08-25 00:37:54 CST (started/finished about 389h 38m ago) | Snapshot window: pending -> 2026-08-25 00:37:54

First snapshotFT handicap 待补 · total 待补

Latest marketFT handicap -0.5 · total 2.5

Movement: FT handicap data pending; FT total data pending; HT handicap data pending; HT total data pending.

Pre-match note: Market snapshots are thin; refresh Feijing data again before publishing the final pre-match version.

Final Read: 1:1

Predicted side: FC Seoul win · Actual side: draw · side missed

Using the full-time handicap, totals, comparable market buckets and half-time market, the model's full-time first pick for Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs FC Seoul is 1:1 (19.5%). FC Seoul side rates higher. This match uses a DeepSeek AI sidecar factor. The AI signal only applies a small candidate-score reweighting and does not override the market/history main model by itself. AI note: 两队进攻指数均偏低，节奏指数为负，高温天气影响体能，总进球倾向不高；客队防守稳固但攻击一般，主队主场机会有限，平局概率较大。 HT first pick is 0:0 (58.6%); HT draw probability is 64.1%, so the model still respects early caution. Exact-score outputs are probability rankings for pre-match research and review.

Risk note: exact scores are low-hit-rate events. The model output is a probability ranking, not a certainty; late market moves, lineups, red cards and early goals can reshape the distribution.

Sources

Feijing · fixtures, results, Asian handicap, totals, half-time markets, Europe 1X2 · Local history database · historical market lines, full-time scores, half-time scores · DeepSeek · AI sidecar context, bounded candidate reweighting only