K League · Score Research

08-16 18:30 CST · K League · Separate HT/FT models

Incheon United

Home side / left market direction

Full-time first pick 1:1 Probability 28.8% · Low-total exact zone Low-total exact zone: 1:1 28.8%; 2:1 14.8%; 1:2 11.9% Half-time first pick 0:0 (61.9%)

Gimcheon Sangmu FC

Away side / right market direction

Five-Factor Read

1. Market strength Draw carries the highest weight

The handicap leans toward Incheon United; the market prices the home side as stronger.

2. Form and pace 0:0

HT first pick is 0:0 (61.9%); HT draw probability is 65.8%, so the model still respects early caution.

3. AI Sidecar Read FT total 2.25

This match uses a DeepSeek AI sidecar factor. The AI signal only applies a small candidate-score reweighting and does not override the market/history main model by itself. AI note: 两队进攻效率低，节奏偏慢，平局概率高，防守导向型比赛。

4. Venue factor non-neutral / normal weather

Venue: 仁川足球场. Non-neutral venue. Weather/temperature: 阴天, 26℃～27℃. The schedule marks this as non-neutral, so home/away identity remains a weak background factor. Weather and temperature do not show a clear tempo-suppression signal. Together with the totals line and Under 3.5 probability, the venue layer supports a lower-tempo or lower-margin script rather than pushing the score upward.

5. Sample and soft factors Strong sample

299 comparable matches; market bucket support is solid

Full-Time Score Distribution

1:1 28.8%

2:1 14.8%

1:2 11.9%

2:2 9.2%

3:1 6.3%

3:2 3.8%

1:0 3.3%

2:0 2.9%

FT market: side line 0.25 · total 2.25 · Bucket ah_ou:0.25/2.0

Score cluster: Low-total exact zone: 1:1 28.8%; 2:1 14.8%; 1:2 11.9%

Half-Time Score Distribution

0:0 61.9%

1:0 19.7%

0:1 8.9%

1:1 3.8%

2:0 2.3%

0:2 1.1%

2:1 0.8%

3:0 0.6%

HT market: side line 0.25 · total 0.75

Incheon United win36.1%

Draw41.5%

Gimcheon Sangmu FC win22.4%

Incheon United expected goals1.62

Gimcheon Sangmu FC expected goals1.37

Under 3.568.8%

FT temperature0.95

Empirical weight78.9%

Sample size299

Europe 1X2home 42.1% / draw 29.4% / away 28.5%

Key Variables

First-goal path Incheon United benefits most from opening the scoring; if HT stays 0:0, the FT distribution compresses toward lower scores.

Deciding factor Draw probability is 41.5%, so the exact-score set should keep draw and one-goal-margin scripts alive.

Risk point Under 3.5 is 68.8%; if the live total moves up materially, rerun the model.

Pre-Match Update · Market Movement

Published 2026-08-25 00:37:54 CST (started/finished about 198h 8m ago) | Snapshot window: pending -> 2026-08-25 00:37:54

First snapshotFT handicap 待补 · total 待补

Latest marketFT handicap 0.25 · total 2.25

Movement: FT handicap data pending; FT total data pending; HT handicap data pending; HT total data pending.

Pre-match note: Market snapshots are thin; refresh Feijing data again before publishing the final pre-match version.

Final Read: 1:1

Predicted side: draw · Actual side: draw · side aligned

Using the full-time handicap, totals, comparable market buckets and half-time market, the model's full-time first pick for Incheon United vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC is 1:1 (28.8%). Draw carries the highest weight. This match uses a DeepSeek AI sidecar factor. The AI signal only applies a small candidate-score reweighting and does not override the market/history main model by itself. AI note: 两队进攻效率低，节奏偏慢，平局概率高，防守导向型比赛。 HT first pick is 0:0 (61.9%); HT draw probability is 65.8%, so the model still respects early caution. Exact-score outputs are probability rankings for pre-match research and review.

Risk note: exact scores are low-hit-rate events. The model output is a probability ranking, not a certainty; late market moves, lineups, red cards and early goals can reshape the distribution.

Sources

Feijing · fixtures, results, Asian handicap, totals, half-time markets, Europe 1X2 · Local history database · historical market lines, full-time scores, half-time scores · DeepSeek · AI sidecar context, bounded candidate reweighting only