K League · Score Research

08-08 19:00 CST · K League · Separate HT/FT models

Jeonbuk Hyundai Motors

Home side / left market direction

Full-time first pick 2:1 Probability 14.1% · Low-total exact zone Low-total exact zone: 2:1 14.1%; 3:1 7.9%; 1:0 6.5% Half-time first pick 0:0 (60.8%)

Jeju SK FC

Away side / right market direction

Five-Factor Read

1. Market strength Jeonbuk Hyundai Motors side rates higher

The handicap leans toward Jeonbuk Hyundai Motors; the market prices the home side as stronger.

2. Form and pace 0:0

HT first pick is 0:0 (60.8%); HT draw probability is 65.1%, so the model still respects early caution.

3. AI Sidecar Read FT total 2.50

This match uses a DeepSeek AI sidecar factor. The AI signal only applies a small candidate-score reweighting and does not override the market/history main model by itself. AI note: 主队实力与主场占优，胜率近半；两队节奏指数均低且高温可能抑制进球，倾向小胜。样本薄，阵容风险高。

4. Venue factor non-neutral / heat

Venue: 全州市世界杯球场. Non-neutral venue. Weather/temperature: 天晴, 32℃～33℃. The schedule marks this as non-neutral, so home/away identity remains a weak background factor. Higher temperature raises fatigue risk and late-game tempo drop risk.

5. Sample and soft factors Usable sample

104 comparable matches; useful for probability ranking

Full-Time Score Distribution

2:1 14.1%

3:1 7.9%

1:0 6.5%

2:0 6.1%

3:2 4.7%

3:0 2.9%

4:1 1.6%

4:2 1.0%

FT market: side line 0.50 · total 2.50 · Bucket ah_ou:0.5/2.5

Score cluster: Low-total exact zone: 2:1 14.1%; 3:1 7.9%; 1:0 6.5%

Half-Time Score Distribution

0:0 60.8%

1:0 19.9%

0:1 9.0%

1:1 4.1%

2:0 2.5%

0:2 1.2%

2:1 0.9%

3:0 0.6%

HT market: side line 0.25 · total 1.00

Jeonbuk Hyundai Motors win49.1%

Draw32.5%

Jeju SK FC win18.4%

Jeonbuk Hyundai Motors expected goals1.78

Jeju SK FC expected goals1.19

Under 3.567.5%

FT temperature0.95

Empirical weight56.5%

Sample size104

Europe 1X2home 48.6% / draw 27.1% / away 24.3%

Key Variables

First-goal path Jeonbuk Hyundai Motors benefits most from opening the scoring; if HT stays 0:0, the FT distribution compresses toward lower scores.

Deciding factor Draw probability is 32.5%, so the exact-score set should keep draw and one-goal-margin scripts alive.

Risk point Under 3.5 is 67.5%; if the live total moves up materially, rerun the model.

Pre-Match Update · Market Movement

Published 2026-08-25 00:37:54 CST (started/finished about 389h 38m ago) | Snapshot window: pending -> 2026-08-25 00:37:54

First snapshotFT handicap 待补 · total 待补

Latest marketFT handicap 0.5 · total 2.5

Movement: FT handicap data pending; FT total data pending; HT handicap data pending; HT total data pending.

Pre-match note: Market snapshots are thin; refresh Feijing data again before publishing the final pre-match version.

Final Read: 2:1

Predicted side: Jeonbuk Hyundai Motors win · Actual side: Jeju SK FC win · side missed

Using the full-time handicap, totals, comparable market buckets and half-time market, the model's full-time first pick for Jeonbuk Hyundai Motors vs Jeju SK FC is 2:1 (14.1%). Jeonbuk Hyundai Motors side rates higher. This match uses a DeepSeek AI sidecar factor. The AI signal only applies a small candidate-score reweighting and does not override the market/history main model by itself. AI note: 主队实力与主场占优，胜率近半；两队节奏指数均低且高温可能抑制进球，倾向小胜。样本薄，阵容风险高。 HT first pick is 0:0 (60.8%); HT draw probability is 65.1%, so the model still respects early caution. Exact-score outputs are probability rankings for pre-match research and review.

Risk note: exact scores are low-hit-rate events. The model output is a probability ranking, not a certainty; late market moves, lineups, red cards and early goals can reshape the distribution.

Sources

Feijing · fixtures, results, Asian handicap, totals, half-time markets, Europe 1X2 · Local history database · historical market lines, full-time scores, half-time scores · DeepSeek · AI sidecar context, bounded candidate reweighting only