K League · Score Research

08-16 18:30 CST · K League · Separate HT/FT models

Ulsan HD FC

Home side / left market direction

Full-time first pick 1:1 Probability 19.2% · Low-total exact zone Low-total exact zone: 1:1 19.2%; 2:1 16.0%; 1:2 10.6% Half-time first pick 0:0 (62.3%)

Gangwon FC

Away side / right market direction

Five-Factor Read

1. Market strength Ulsan HD FC side rates higher

The handicap leans toward Ulsan HD FC; the market prices the home side as stronger.

2. Form and pace 0:0

HT first pick is 0:0 (62.3%); HT draw probability is 66.0%, so the model still respects early caution.

3. AI Sidecar Read FT total 2.50

This match uses a DeepSeek AI sidecar factor. The AI signal only applies a small candidate-score reweighting and does not override the market/history main model by itself. AI note: 双方进攻指数偏低且节奏慢，客场防守漏勺指数更优，雨战降低总进球；蔚山主场略优但样本稀疏，平局/小球值得关注。

4. Venue factor non-neutral / weather risk

Venue: 蔚山文殊球场. Non-neutral venue. Weather/temperature: 微雨, 23℃～24℃. The schedule marks this as non-neutral, so home/away identity remains a weak background factor. Weather creates a disruption signal, so high-tempo attacking chains and blowout tails are treated more carefully.

5. Sample and soft factors Usable sample

139 comparable matches; useful for probability ranking

Full-Time Score Distribution

1:1 19.2%

2:1 16.0%

1:2 10.6%

2:2 10.2%

3:1 6.0%

1:0 4.8%

0:0 4.3%

0:1 3.5%

FT market: side line 0.25 · total 2.50 · Bucket ah_ou:0.25/2.5

Score cluster: Low-total exact zone: 1:1 19.2%; 2:1 16.0%; 1:2 10.6%

Half-Time Score Distribution

0:0 62.3%

1:0 15.4%

0:1 13.0%

1:1 3.6%

2:0 2.0%

0:2 1.6%

2:1 0.6%

1:2 0.6%

HT market: side line 0.00 · total 1.00

Ulsan HD FC win39.7%

Draw35.6%

Gangwon FC win24.7%

Ulsan HD FC expected goals1.65

Gangwon FC expected goals1.37

Under 3.566.0%

FT temperature0.95

Empirical weight63.5%

Sample size139

Europe 1X2home 41.0% / draw 28.1% / away 30.9%

Key Variables

First-goal path Ulsan HD FC benefits most from opening the scoring; if HT stays 0:0, the FT distribution compresses toward lower scores.

Deciding factor Draw probability is 35.6%, so the exact-score set should keep draw and one-goal-margin scripts alive.

Risk point Under 3.5 is 66.0%; if the live total moves up materially, rerun the model.

Pre-Match Update · Market Movement

Published 2026-08-25 00:37:54 CST (started/finished about 198h 8m ago) | Snapshot window: pending -> 2026-08-25 00:37:54

First snapshotFT handicap 待补 · total 待补

Latest marketFT handicap 0.25 · total 2.5

Movement: FT handicap data pending; FT total data pending; HT handicap data pending; HT total data pending.

Pre-match note: Market snapshots are thin; refresh Feijing data again before publishing the final pre-match version.

Final Read: 1:1

Predicted side: Ulsan HD FC win · Actual side: Gangwon FC win · side missed

Using the full-time handicap, totals, comparable market buckets and half-time market, the model's full-time first pick for Ulsan HD FC vs Gangwon FC is 1:1 (19.2%). Ulsan HD FC side rates higher. This match uses a DeepSeek AI sidecar factor. The AI signal only applies a small candidate-score reweighting and does not override the market/history main model by itself. AI note: 双方进攻指数偏低且节奏慢，客场防守漏勺指数更优，雨战降低总进球；蔚山主场略优但样本稀疏，平局/小球值得关注。 HT first pick is 0:0 (62.3%); HT draw probability is 66.0%, so the model still respects early caution. Exact-score outputs are probability rankings for pre-match research and review.

Risk note: exact scores are low-hit-rate events. The model output is a probability ranking, not a certainty; late market moves, lineups, red cards and early goals can reshape the distribution.

Sources

Feijing · fixtures, results, Asian handicap, totals, half-time markets, Europe 1X2 · Local history database · historical market lines, full-time scores, half-time scores · DeepSeek · AI sidecar context, bounded candidate reweighting only