Swedish Allsvenskan · Score Research

08-16 20:00 CST · Swedish Allsvenskan · Separate HT/FT models

Degerfors IF

Home side / left market direction

Full-time first pick 1:1 Probability 19.0% · Low-total exact zone Low-total exact zone: 1:1 19.0%; 2:1 12.2%; 1:2 10.1% Half-time first pick 0:0 (62.3%)

IFK Goteborg

Away side / right market direction

Five-Factor Read

1. Market strength Degerfors IF side rates higher

The handicap leans toward IFK Goteborg; the market prices the away side as stronger.

2. Form and pace 0:0

HT first pick is 0:0 (62.3%); HT draw probability is 66.1%, so the model still respects early caution.

3. AI Sidecar Read FT total 2.50

This match uses a DeepSeek AI sidecar factor. The AI signal only applies a small candidate-score reweighting and does not override the market/history main model by itself. AI note: 主队进攻疲软但防守稳健，客队防守漏洞大且节奏快；微雨低温可能抑制进球，半场闷平概率高，整体倾向小比分。

4. Venue factor Non-neutral venue

Venue: venue pending. Non-neutral venue. Weather/temperature: 微雨, 13℃～14℃. The schedule marks this as non-neutral, so home/away identity remains a weak background factor. Weather creates a disruption signal, so high-tempo attacking chains and blowout tails are treated more carefully.

5. Sample and soft factors Usable sample

81 comparable matches; useful for probability ranking

Full-Time Score Distribution

1:1 19.0%

2:1 12.2%

1:2 10.1%

2:2 7.8%

0:1 5.9%

3:1 5.1%

1:0 5.1%

0:0 4.7%

FT market: side line -0.25 · total 2.50 · Bucket ah_ou:-0.25/2.5

Score cluster: Low-total exact zone: 1:1 19.0%; 2:1 12.2%; 1:2 10.1%

Half-Time Score Distribution

0:0 62.3%

1:0 15.1%

0:1 13.3%

1:1 3.6%

2:0 1.9%

0:2 1.7%

2:1 0.6%

1:2 0.6%

HT market: side line 0.00 · total 1.00

Degerfors IF win35.3%

Draw33.4%

IFK Goteborg win31.3%

Degerfors IF expected goals1.52

IFK Goteborg expected goals1.44

Under 3.566.9%

FT temperature0.95

Empirical weight50.3%

Sample size81

Europe 1X2home 31.2% / draw 27.3% / away 41.6%

Key Variables

First-goal path Degerfors IF benefits most from opening the scoring; if HT stays 0:0, the FT distribution compresses toward lower scores.

Deciding factor Draw probability is 33.4%, so the exact-score set should keep draw and one-goal-margin scripts alive.

Risk point Under 3.5 is 66.9%; if the live total moves up materially, rerun the model.

Pre-Match Update · Market Movement

Published 2026-08-25 00:37:48 CST (started/finished about 196h 38m ago) | Snapshot window: pending -> 2026-08-25 00:37:48

First snapshotFT handicap 待补 · total 待补

Latest marketFT handicap -0.25 · total 2.5

Movement: FT handicap data pending; FT total data pending; HT handicap data pending; HT total data pending.

Pre-match note: Market snapshots are thin; refresh Feijing data again before publishing the final pre-match version.

Final Read: 1:1

Predicted side: Degerfors IF win · Actual side: Degerfors IF win · side aligned

Using the full-time handicap, totals, comparable market buckets and half-time market, the model's full-time first pick for Degerfors IF vs IFK Goteborg is 1:1 (19.0%). Degerfors IF side rates higher. This match uses a DeepSeek AI sidecar factor. The AI signal only applies a small candidate-score reweighting and does not override the market/history main model by itself. AI note: 主队进攻疲软但防守稳健，客队防守漏洞大且节奏快；微雨低温可能抑制进球，半场闷平概率高，整体倾向小比分。 HT first pick is 0:0 (62.3%); HT draw probability is 66.1%, so the model still respects early caution. Exact-score outputs are probability rankings for pre-match research and review.

Risk note: exact scores are low-hit-rate events. The model output is a probability ranking, not a certainty; late market moves, lineups, red cards and early goals can reshape the distribution.

Sources

Feijing · fixtures, results, Asian handicap, totals, half-time markets, Europe 1X2 · Local history database · historical market lines, full-time scores, half-time scores · DeepSeek · AI sidecar context, bounded candidate reweighting only