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08-05 02:00 CST · UEFA Champions League · Separate HT/FT models

AC

AC Sparta Prague

Home side / left market direction

Full-time first pick 1:2 Probability 14.1% · Standard score cluster Standard score cluster: 1:2 14.1%; 1:3 7.8%; 0:1 4.7%; 2:3 4.6% Half-time first pick 0:0 (56.9%)
Ly

Lyon

Away side / right market direction

Five-Factor Read

1. Market strength Lyon side rates higher

The handicap leans toward Lyon; the market prices the away side as stronger.

2. Form and pace 0:0

HT first pick is 0:0 (56.9%); HT draw probability is 63.0%, so the model still respects early caution.

3. AI Sidecar Read FT total 2.75

This match uses a DeepSeek AI sidecar factor. The AI signal only applies a small candidate-score reweighting and does not override the market/history main model by itself. AI note: 里昂攻击力占优，客胜概率高；主队防守稳但进攻弱，主场或有冷门进球；炎热天气可能拖慢节奏。

4. Venue factor non-neutral / heat

Venue: 简纳拉利球场. Non-neutral venue. Weather/temperature: 多云, 31℃～32℃. The schedule marks this as non-neutral, so home/away identity remains a weak background factor. Higher temperature raises fatigue risk and late-game tempo drop risk. Together with the totals line, the venue layer can support a more open upper tail.

5. Sample and soft factors Usable sample

121 comparable matches; useful for probability ranking

Full-Time Score Distribution

1:2 14.1%
1:3 7.8%
0:1 4.7%
2:3 4.6%
0:2 3.0%
1:4 2.5%
0:3 1.6%
2:4 1.4%
FT market: side line -0.50 · total 2.75 · Bucket ah_ou:-0.5/3.0
Score cluster: Standard score cluster: 1:2 14.1%; 1:3 7.8%; 0:1 4.7%; 2:3 4.6%

Half-Time Score Distribution

0:0 56.9%
0:1 16.7%
1:0 12.7%
1:1 5.9%
0:2 3.4%
2:0 2.1%
1:2 0.8%
2:1 0.5%
HT market: side line -0.25 · total 1.25
AC Sparta Prague win28.4%
Draw28.0%
Lyon win43.7%
AC Sparta Prague expected goals1.49
Lyon expected goals1.81
Under 3.560.5%
FT temperature0.95
Empirical weight60.2%
Sample size121
Europe 1X2home 27.6% / draw 25.4% / away 47.0%

Key Variables

First-goal path Lyon benefits most from opening the scoring; if HT stays 0:0, the FT distribution compresses toward lower scores.
Deciding factor Draw probability is 28.0%, so the exact-score set should keep draw and one-goal-margin scripts alive.
Risk point Under 3.5 is 60.5%; if the live total moves up materially, rerun the model.

Pre-Match Update · Market Movement

Published 2026-08-25 00:37:43 CST (started/finished about 478h 38m ago) | Snapshot window: pending -> 2026-08-25 00:37:43

First snapshotFT handicap 待补 · total 待补
Latest marketFT handicap -0.5 · total 2.75

Movement: FT handicap data pending; FT total data pending; HT handicap data pending; HT total data pending.

Pre-match note: Market snapshots are thin; refresh Feijing data again before publishing the final pre-match version.

Final Read: 1:2

Predicted side: Lyon win · Actual side: AC Sparta Prague win · side missed

Using the full-time handicap, totals, comparable market buckets and half-time market, the model's full-time first pick for AC Sparta Prague vs Lyon is 1:2 (14.1%). Lyon side rates higher. This match uses a DeepSeek AI sidecar factor. The AI signal only applies a small candidate-score reweighting and does not override the market/history main model by itself. AI note: 里昂攻击力占优，客胜概率高；主队防守稳但进攻弱，主场或有冷门进球；炎热天气可能拖慢节奏。 HT first pick is 0:0 (56.9%); HT draw probability is 63.0%, so the model still respects early caution. Exact-score outputs are probability rankings for pre-match research and review.

Risk note: exact scores are low-hit-rate events. The model output is a probability ranking, not a certainty; late market moves, lineups, red cards and early goals can reshape the distribution.

Sources

Feijing · fixtures, results, Asian handicap, totals, half-time markets, Europe 1X2 · Local history database · historical market lines, full-time scores, half-time scores · DeepSeek · AI sidecar context, bounded candidate reweighting only