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UEFA Champions League · Score Research

08-12 02:00 CST · UEFA Champions League · Separate HT/FT models

Cr

Crvena Zvezda

Home side / left market direction

Full-time first pick 2:1 Probability 12.2% · High-total score cluster High-total score cluster: 2:1 12.2%; 3:1 9.8%; 3:2 5.6%; 4:1 5.3%; 3:0 5.1%; 4:0 4.0%; 5:1 3.8%; 4:2 3.2% Half-time first pick 0:0 (39.7%)
Ha

Hapoel Beer Sheva

Away side / right market direction

Five-Factor Read

1. Market strength Crvena Zvezda side rates higher

The handicap leans toward Crvena Zvezda; the market prices the home side as stronger.

2. Form and pace 0:0

HT first pick is 0:0 (39.7%); HT draw probability is 47.2%, so the model still respects early caution.

3. AI Sidecar Read FT total 3.50

This match uses a DeepSeek AI sidecar factor. The AI signal only applies a small candidate-score reweighting and does not override the market/history main model by itself. AI note: 主队主场强势但攻击效率一般，客队攻击指数正但防守差，市场深盘与概率略有背离；炎热天气可能拖慢节奏，存在客队偷分风险。

4. Venue factor non-neutral / heat

Venue: 红星体育场. Non-neutral venue. Weather/temperature: 天晴, 35℃～36℃. The schedule marks this as non-neutral, so home/away identity remains a weak background factor. Higher temperature raises fatigue risk and late-game tempo drop risk. Together with the totals line, the venue layer can support a more open upper tail.

5. Sample and soft factors Usable sample

174 comparable matches; useful for probability ranking

Full-Time Score Distribution

2:1 12.2%
3:1 9.8%
1:1 9.8%
1:2 5.9%
3:2 5.6%
2:0 5.5%
4:1 5.3%
3:0 5.1%
FT market: side line 2.00 · total 3.50 · Bucket side_ou:home_favored/3.5
Score cluster: High-total score cluster: 2:1 12.2%; 3:1 9.8%; 3:2 5.6%; 4:1 5.3%; 3:0 5.1%; 4:0 4.0%; 5:1 3.8%; 4:2 3.2%

Half-Time Score Distribution

0:0 39.7%
1:0 24.9%
2:0 12.2%
1:1 7.2%
0:1 5.7%
3:0 2.8%
0:2 2.1%
2:1 1.9%
HT market: side line 0.75 · total 1.50
Crvena Zvezda win67.3%
Draw18.4%
Hapoel Beer Sheva win14.2%
Crvena Zvezda expected goals2.64
Hapoel Beer Sheva expected goals1.25
Under 3.544.8%
FT temperature0.95
Empirical weight55.0%
Sample size174
Europe 1X2home 77.8% / draw 13.8% / away 8.4%

Key Variables

First-goal path Crvena Zvezda benefits most from opening the scoring; if HT stays 0:0, the FT distribution compresses toward lower scores.
Deciding factor Draw probability is 18.4%, so the exact-score set should keep draw and one-goal-margin scripts alive.
Risk point Under 3.5 is 44.8%; if the live total moves up materially, rerun the model.

Pre-Match Update · Market Movement

Published 2026-08-25 00:37:43 CST (started/finished about 310h 38m ago) | Snapshot window: pending -> 2026-08-25 00:37:43

First snapshotFT handicap 待补 · total 待补
Latest marketFT handicap 2 · total 3.5

Movement: FT handicap data pending; FT total data pending; HT handicap data pending; HT total data pending.

Pre-match note: Market snapshots are thin; refresh Feijing data again before publishing the final pre-match version.

Final Read: 2:1

Predicted side: Crvena Zvezda win · Actual side: Hapoel Beer Sheva win · side missed

Using the full-time handicap, totals, comparable market buckets and half-time market, the model's full-time first pick for Crvena Zvezda vs Hapoel Beer Sheva is 2:1 (12.2%). Crvena Zvezda side rates higher. This match uses a DeepSeek AI sidecar factor. The AI signal only applies a small candidate-score reweighting and does not override the market/history main model by itself. AI note: 主队主场强势但攻击效率一般，客队攻击指数正但防守差，市场深盘与概率略有背离；炎热天气可能拖慢节奏，存在客队偷分风险。 HT first pick is 0:0 (39.7%); HT draw probability is 47.2%, so the model still respects early caution. Exact-score outputs are probability rankings for pre-match research and review.

Risk note: exact scores are low-hit-rate events. The model output is a probability ranking, not a certainty; late market moves, lineups, red cards and early goals can reshape the distribution.

Sources

Feijing · fixtures, results, Asian handicap, totals, half-time markets, Europe 1X2 · Local history database · historical market lines, full-time scores, half-time scores · DeepSeek · AI sidecar context, bounded candidate reweighting only