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08-05 02:00 CST · UEFA Champions League · Separate HT/FT models

Di

Dinamo Zagreb

Home side / left market direction

Full-time first pick 2:1 Probability 13.5% · High-total score cluster High-total score cluster: 2:1 13.5%; 3:1 9.3%; 3:0 6.6%; 4:0 4.3%; 4:1 4.1%; 3:2 4.0%; 5:1 2.6%; 4:2 2.5% Half-time first pick 0:0 (50.4%)
Ka

Kauno Zalgiris

Away side / right market direction

Five-Factor Read

1. Market strength Dinamo Zagreb side rates higher

The handicap leans toward Dinamo Zagreb; the market prices the home side as stronger.

2. Form and pace 0:0

HT first pick is 0:0 (50.4%); HT draw probability is 54.4%, so the model still respects early caution.

3. AI Sidecar Read FT total 3.00

This match uses a DeepSeek AI sidecar factor. The AI signal only applies a small candidate-score reweighting and does not override the market/history main model by itself. AI note: 高温可能降低节奏，主队实力强但防守有漏洞，客队或能偷分；半场多0:0。需关注阵容轮换。

4. Venue factor non-neutral / heat

Venue: 马克西米尔体育场. Non-neutral venue. Weather/temperature: 间中有云, 35℃～36℃. The schedule marks this as non-neutral, so home/away identity remains a weak background factor. Higher temperature raises fatigue risk and late-game tempo drop risk. Together with the totals line, the venue layer can support a more open upper tail.

5. Sample and soft factors Strong sample

995 comparable matches; market bucket support is solid

Full-Time Score Distribution

2:1 13.5%
1:1 11.8%
3:1 9.3%
2:0 7.9%
3:0 6.6%
1:0 6.2%
2:2 5.2%
1:2 5.2%
FT market: side line 2.00 · total 3.00 · Bucket side_ou:home_favored/3.0
Score cluster: High-total score cluster: 2:1 13.5%; 3:1 9.3%; 3:0 6.6%; 4:0 4.3%; 4:1 4.1%; 3:2 4.0%; 5:1 2.6%; 4:2 2.5%

Half-Time Score Distribution

0:0 50.4%
1:0 26.1%
2:0 8.1%
0:1 6.0%
1:1 3.9%
3:0 2.4%
2:1 1.1%
0:2 0.6%
HT market: side line 1.00 · total 1.25
Dinamo Zagreb win67.3%
Draw20.8%
Kauno Zalgiris win12.0%
Dinamo Zagreb expected goals2.41
Kauno Zalgiris expected goals1.05
Under 3.554.8%
FT temperature0.95
Empirical weight55.0%
Sample size995
Europe 1X2home 80.0% / draw 13.6% / away 6.4%

Key Variables

First-goal path Dinamo Zagreb benefits most from opening the scoring; if HT stays 0:0, the FT distribution compresses toward lower scores.
Deciding factor Draw probability is 20.8%, so the exact-score set should keep draw and one-goal-margin scripts alive.
Risk point Under 3.5 is 54.8%; if the live total moves up materially, rerun the model.

Pre-Match Update · Market Movement

Published 2026-08-25 00:37:43 CST (started/finished about 478h 38m ago) | Snapshot window: pending -> 2026-08-25 00:37:43

First snapshotFT handicap 待补 · total 待补
Latest marketFT handicap 2 · total 3

Movement: FT handicap data pending; FT total data pending; HT handicap data pending; HT total data pending.

Pre-match note: Market snapshots are thin; refresh Feijing data again before publishing the final pre-match version.

Final Read: 2:1

Predicted side: Dinamo Zagreb win · Actual side: Dinamo Zagreb win · side aligned

Using the full-time handicap, totals, comparable market buckets and half-time market, the model's full-time first pick for Dinamo Zagreb vs Kauno Zalgiris is 2:1 (13.5%). Dinamo Zagreb side rates higher. This match uses a DeepSeek AI sidecar factor. The AI signal only applies a small candidate-score reweighting and does not override the market/history main model by itself. AI note: 高温可能降低节奏，主队实力强但防守有漏洞，客队或能偷分；半场多0:0。需关注阵容轮换。 HT first pick is 0:0 (50.4%); HT draw probability is 54.4%, so the model still respects early caution. Exact-score outputs are probability rankings for pre-match research and review.

Risk note: exact scores are low-hit-rate events. The model output is a probability ranking, not a certainty; late market moves, lineups, red cards and early goals can reshape the distribution.

Sources

Feijing · fixtures, results, Asian handicap, totals, half-time markets, Europe 1X2 · Local history database · historical market lines, full-time scores, half-time scores · DeepSeek · AI sidecar context, bounded candidate reweighting only