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08-19 03:00 CST · UEFA Champions League · Separate HT/FT models

Di

Dinamo Zagreb

Home side / left market direction

Full-time first pick 2:1 Probability 15.6% · Standard score cluster Standard score cluster: 2:1 15.6%; 3:1 10.9%; 3:2 5.0%; 2:0 3.2% Half-time first pick 0:0 (59.3%)
Vi

Viking

Away side / right market direction

Five-Factor Read

1. Market strength Dinamo Zagreb side rates higher

The handicap leans toward Dinamo Zagreb; the market prices the home side as stronger.

2. Form and pace 0:0

HT first pick is 0:0 (59.3%); HT draw probability is 64.0%, so the model still respects early caution.

3. AI Sidecar Read FT total 3.00

This match uses a DeepSeek AI sidecar factor. The AI signal only applies a small candidate-score reweighting and does not override the market/history main model by itself. AI note: 主队让0.75但攻击指数偏低，客队攻击强且节奏快，比赛可能开放；双方阵容样本薄，伤停风险高。

4. Venue factor non-neutral / normal weather

Venue: 马克西米尔体育场. Non-neutral venue. Weather/temperature: 多云, 22℃～23℃. The schedule marks this as non-neutral, so home/away identity remains a weak background factor. Weather and temperature do not show a clear tempo-suppression signal. Together with the totals line, the venue layer can support a more open upper tail.

5. Sample and soft factors Usable sample

199 comparable matches; useful for probability ranking

Full-Time Score Distribution

2:1 15.6%
3:1 10.9%
3:2 5.0%
2:0 3.2%
4:1 3.0%
1:0 2.9%
4:2 2.3%
5:1 2.2%
FT market: side line 0.75 · total 3.00 · Bucket ah_ou:0.75/3.0
Score cluster: Standard score cluster: 2:1 15.6%; 3:1 10.9%; 3:2 5.0%; 2:0 3.2%

Half-Time Score Distribution

0:0 59.3%
1:0 19.9%
0:1 9.1%
1:1 4.5%
2:0 2.8%
0:2 1.3%
2:1 1.1%
3:0 0.7%
HT market: side line 0.25 · total 1.25
Dinamo Zagreb win53.0%
Draw28.0%
Viking win19.0%
Dinamo Zagreb expected goals2.19
Viking expected goals1.43
Under 3.550.9%
FT temperature0.95
Empirical weight71.3%
Sample size199
Europe 1X2home 56.1% / draw 23.1% / away 20.8%

Key Variables

First-goal path Dinamo Zagreb benefits most from opening the scoring; if HT stays 0:0, the FT distribution compresses toward lower scores.
Deciding factor Draw probability is 28.0%, so the exact-score set should keep draw and one-goal-margin scripts alive.
Risk point Under 3.5 is 50.9%; if the live total moves up materially, rerun the model.

Pre-Match Update · Market Movement

Published 2026-08-25 00:37:43 CST (started/finished about 141h 38m ago) | Snapshot window: pending -> 2026-08-25 00:37:43

First snapshotFT handicap 待补 · total 待补
Latest marketFT handicap 0.75 · total 3

Movement: FT handicap data pending; FT total data pending; HT handicap data pending; HT total data pending.

Pre-match note: Market snapshots are thin; refresh Feijing data again before publishing the final pre-match version.

Final Read: 2:1

Predicted side: Dinamo Zagreb win · Actual side: draw · side missed

Using the full-time handicap, totals, comparable market buckets and half-time market, the model's full-time first pick for Dinamo Zagreb vs Viking is 2:1 (15.6%). Dinamo Zagreb side rates higher. This match uses a DeepSeek AI sidecar factor. The AI signal only applies a small candidate-score reweighting and does not override the market/history main model by itself. AI note: 主队让0.75但攻击指数偏低，客队攻击强且节奏快，比赛可能开放；双方阵容样本薄，伤停风险高。 HT first pick is 0:0 (59.3%); HT draw probability is 64.0%, so the model still respects early caution. Exact-score outputs are probability rankings for pre-match research and review.

Risk note: exact scores are low-hit-rate events. The model output is a probability ranking, not a certainty; late market moves, lineups, red cards and early goals can reshape the distribution.

Sources

Feijing · fixtures, results, Asian handicap, totals, half-time markets, Europe 1X2 · Local history database · historical market lines, full-time scores, half-time scores · DeepSeek · AI sidecar context, bounded candidate reweighting only