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08-19 03:00 CST · UEFA Champions League · Separate HT/FT models

Fenerbahce

Home side / left market direction

Full-time first pick 2:1 Probability 14.8% · Standard score cluster Standard score cluster: 2:1 14.8%; 3:1 7.5%; 3:2 5.7%; 1:0 4.0% Half-time first pick 0:0 (60.4%)

Lyon

Away side / right market direction

Five-Factor Read

1. Market strength Fenerbahce side rates higher

The handicap leans toward Fenerbahce; the market prices the home side as stronger.

2. Form and pace 0:0

HT first pick is 0:0 (60.4%); HT draw probability is 64.8%, so the model still respects early caution.

3. AI Sidecar Read FT total 2.75

This match uses a DeepSeek AI sidecar factor. The AI signal only applies a small candidate-score reweighting and does not override the market/history main model by itself. AI note: 主队进攻/节奏指数明显占优，市场主胜概率近半，全场2.75球偏开放；但半场0:0概率高，比分后段可能被主队带开。无最新阵容/伤停信息，样本薄，置信度保守。

4. Venue factor non-neutral / normal weather

Venue: 苏克鲁萨拉科格鲁球场. Non-neutral venue. Weather/temperature: 多云, 24℃～25℃. The schedule marks this as non-neutral, so home/away identity remains a weak background factor. Weather and temperature do not show a clear tempo-suppression signal. Together with the totals line, the venue layer can support a more open upper tail.

5. Sample and soft factors Usable sample

168 comparable matches; useful for probability ranking

Full-Time Score Distribution

2:1 14.8%

3:1 7.5%

3:2 5.7%

1:0 4.0%

4:2 3.9%

2:0 3.3%

4:1 2.4%

5:1 2.1%

FT market: side line 0.50 · total 2.75 · Bucket ah_ou:0.5/3.0

Score cluster: Standard score cluster: 2:1 14.8%; 3:1 7.5%; 3:2 5.7%; 1:0 4.0%

Half-Time Score Distribution

0:0 60.4%

1:0 19.8%

0:1 9.1%

1:1 4.2%

2:0 2.5%

0:2 1.3%

2:1 0.9%

3:0 0.6%

HT market: side line 0.25 · total 1.00

Fenerbahce win49.2%

Draw28.9%

Lyon win21.9%

Fenerbahce expected goals2.01

Lyon expected goals1.46

Under 3.556.1%

FT temperature0.95

Empirical weight67.7%

Sample size168

Europe 1X2home 46.7% / draw 26.1% / away 27.2%

Key Variables

First-goal path Fenerbahce benefits most from opening the scoring; if HT stays 0:0, the FT distribution compresses toward lower scores.

Deciding factor Draw probability is 28.9%, so the exact-score set should keep draw and one-goal-margin scripts alive.

Risk point Under 3.5 is 56.1%; if the live total moves up materially, rerun the model.

Pre-Match Update · Market Movement

Published 2026-08-25 00:37:43 CST (started/finished about 141h 38m ago) | Snapshot window: pending -> 2026-08-25 00:37:43

First snapshotFT handicap 待补 · total 待补

Latest marketFT handicap 0.5 · total 2.75

Movement: FT handicap data pending; FT total data pending; HT handicap data pending; HT total data pending.

Pre-match note: Market snapshots are thin; refresh Feijing data again before publishing the final pre-match version.

Final Read: 2:1

Predicted side: Fenerbahce win · Actual side: draw · side missed

Using the full-time handicap, totals, comparable market buckets and half-time market, the model's full-time first pick for Fenerbahce vs Lyon is 2:1 (14.8%). Fenerbahce side rates higher. This match uses a DeepSeek AI sidecar factor. The AI signal only applies a small candidate-score reweighting and does not override the market/history main model by itself. AI note: 主队进攻/节奏指数明显占优，市场主胜概率近半，全场2.75球偏开放；但半场0:0概率高，比分后段可能被主队带开。无最新阵容/伤停信息，样本薄，置信度保守。 HT first pick is 0:0 (60.4%); HT draw probability is 64.8%, so the model still respects early caution. Exact-score outputs are probability rankings for pre-match research and review.

Risk note: exact scores are low-hit-rate events. The model output is a probability ranking, not a certainty; late market moves, lineups, red cards and early goals can reshape the distribution.

Sources

Feijing · fixtures, results, Asian handicap, totals, half-time markets, Europe 1X2 · Local history database · historical market lines, full-time scores, half-time scores · DeepSeek · AI sidecar context, bounded candidate reweighting only