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08-06 02:00 CST · UEFA Champions League · Separate HT/FT models

Fe

Fenerbahce

Home side / left market direction

Full-time first pick 2:1 Probability 11.5% · High-total score cluster High-total score cluster: 2:1 11.5%; 3:1 9.3%; 4:1 7.2%; 3:0 7.0%; 4:0 4.2%; 4:2 3.2%; 5:1 3.0%; 3:2 2.9% Half-time first pick 0:0 (39.8%)
St

Sturm Graz

Away side / right market direction

Five-Factor Read

1. Market strength Fenerbahce side rates higher

The handicap leans toward Fenerbahce; the market prices the home side as stronger.

2. Form and pace 0:0

HT first pick is 0:0 (39.8%); HT draw probability is 47.3%, so the model still respects early caution.

3. AI Sidecar Read FT total 3.25

This match uses a DeepSeek AI sidecar factor. The AI signal only applies a small candidate-score reweighting and does not override the market/history main model by itself. AI note: 主队主场且市场深让球，进攻指数高；总进球盘偏大但阵容样本薄，天气闷热或影响节奏；无外部信息，风险中等。

4. Venue factor non-neutral / heat

Venue: 苏克鲁萨拉科格鲁球场. Non-neutral venue. Weather/temperature: 间中有云, 28℃～29℃. The schedule marks this as non-neutral, so home/away identity remains a weak background factor. Higher temperature raises fatigue risk and late-game tempo drop risk. Together with the totals line, the venue layer can support a more open upper tail.

5. Sample and soft factors Usable sample

58 comparable matches; useful for probability ranking

Full-Time Score Distribution

2:1 11.5%
3:1 9.3%
4:1 7.2%
2:0 7.1%
3:0 7.0%
1:0 5.1%
4:0 4.2%
4:2 3.2%
FT market: side line 1.50 · total 3.25 · Bucket ah_ou:1.5/3.0
Score cluster: High-total score cluster: 2:1 11.5%; 3:1 9.3%; 4:1 7.2%; 3:0 7.0%; 4:0 4.2%; 4:2 3.2%; 5:1 3.0%; 3:2 2.9%

Half-Time Score Distribution

0:0 39.8%
1:0 28.0%
2:0 10.5%
1:1 7.3%
0:1 6.4%
3:0 2.7%
2:1 2.1%
4:0 1.1%
HT market: side line 0.75 · total 1.25
Fenerbahce win68.6%
Draw20.1%
Sturm Graz win11.3%
Fenerbahce expected goals2.56
Sturm Graz expected goals1.08
Under 3.550.9%
FT temperature0.95
Empirical weight42.0%
Sample size58
Europe 1X2home 72.3% / draw 16.8% / away 10.9%

Key Variables

First-goal path Fenerbahce benefits most from opening the scoring; if HT stays 0:0, the FT distribution compresses toward lower scores.
Deciding factor Draw probability is 20.1%, so the exact-score set should keep draw and one-goal-margin scripts alive.
Risk point Under 3.5 is 50.9%; if the live total moves up materially, rerun the model.

Pre-Match Update · Market Movement

Published 2026-08-25 00:37:43 CST (started/finished about 454h 38m ago) | Snapshot window: pending -> 2026-08-25 00:37:43

First snapshotFT handicap 待补 · total 待补
Latest marketFT handicap 1.5 · total 3.25

Movement: FT handicap data pending; FT total data pending; HT handicap data pending; HT total data pending.

Pre-match note: Market snapshots are thin; refresh Feijing data again before publishing the final pre-match version.

Final Read: 2:1

Predicted side: Fenerbahce win · Actual side: Fenerbahce win · side aligned

Using the full-time handicap, totals, comparable market buckets and half-time market, the model's full-time first pick for Fenerbahce vs Sturm Graz is 2:1 (11.5%). Fenerbahce side rates higher. This match uses a DeepSeek AI sidecar factor. The AI signal only applies a small candidate-score reweighting and does not override the market/history main model by itself. AI note: 主队主场且市场深让球，进攻指数高；总进球盘偏大但阵容样本薄，天气闷热或影响节奏；无外部信息，风险中等。 HT first pick is 0:0 (39.8%); HT draw probability is 47.3%, so the model still respects early caution. Exact-score outputs are probability rankings for pre-match research and review.

Risk note: exact scores are low-hit-rate events. The model output is a probability ranking, not a certainty; late market moves, lineups, red cards and early goals can reshape the distribution.

Sources

Feijing · fixtures, results, Asian handicap, totals, half-time markets, Europe 1X2 · Local history database · historical market lines, full-time scores, half-time scores · DeepSeek · AI sidecar context, bounded candidate reweighting only