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08-05 01:30 CST · UEFA Champions League · Separate HT/FT models

Ha

Hapoel Beer Sheva

Home side / left market direction

Full-time first pick 1:2 Probability 14.6% · Standard score cluster Standard score cluster: 1:2 14.6%; 1:1 12.9%; 1:3 9.5%; 0:1 7.1% Half-time first pick 0:0 (58.0%)
Cr

Crvena Zvezda

Away side / right market direction

Five-Factor Read

1. Market strength Crvena Zvezda side rates higher

The handicap leans toward Crvena Zvezda; the market prices the away side as stronger.

2. Form and pace 0:0

HT first pick is 0:0 (58.0%); HT draw probability is 63.5%, so the model still respects early caution.

3. AI Sidecar Read FT total 2.75

This match uses a DeepSeek AI sidecar factor. The AI signal only applies a small candidate-score reweighting and does not override the market/history main model by itself. AI note: 客队实力更强，主队防守漏洞明显，但具备反击偷分可能；半场或闷平，下半场客队压制发力，关注1-2、1-1、1-3等比分。天气晴朗、中立场，外部信息有限。

4. Venue factor neutral / heat

Venue: 特纳体育场. Neutral venue. Weather/temperature: 天晴, 28℃～29℃. Neither side has a clear host-country edge, so the venue read mainly removes normal home advantage and pushes the decision back to market, lineup and tournament context. Higher temperature raises fatigue risk and late-game tempo drop risk. Together with the totals line, the venue layer can support a more open upper tail.

5. Sample and soft factors Usable sample

73 comparable matches; useful for probability ranking

Full-Time Score Distribution

1:2 14.6%
1:1 12.9%
1:3 9.5%
0:1 7.1%
2:2 6.3%
1:4 6.3%
2:1 5.9%
0:2 5.8%
FT market: side line -1.00 · total 2.75 · Bucket ah_ou:-1.0/3.0
Score cluster: Standard score cluster: 1:2 14.6%; 1:1 12.9%; 1:3 9.5%; 0:1 7.1%

Half-Time Score Distribution

0:0 58.0%
0:1 17.6%
1:0 11.7%
1:1 5.4%
0:2 3.6%
2:0 1.7%
1:2 0.7%
0:3 0.5%
HT market: side line -0.25 · total 1.00
Hapoel Beer Sheva win17.4%
Draw23.4%
Crvena Zvezda win59.2%
Hapoel Beer Sheva expected goals1.21
Crvena Zvezda expected goals2.09
Under 3.557.5%
FT temperature0.95
Empirical weight47.7%
Sample size73
Europe 1X2home 19.1% / draw 22.3% / away 58.6%

Key Variables

First-goal path Crvena Zvezda benefits most from opening the scoring; if HT stays 0:0, the FT distribution compresses toward lower scores.
Deciding factor Draw probability is 23.4%, so the exact-score set should keep draw and one-goal-margin scripts alive.
Risk point Under 3.5 is 57.5%; if the live total moves up materially, rerun the model.

Pre-Match Update · Market Movement

Published 2026-08-25 00:37:43 CST (started/finished about 479h 8m ago) | Snapshot window: pending -> 2026-08-25 00:37:43

First snapshotFT handicap 待补 · total 待补
Latest marketFT handicap -1 · total 2.75

Movement: FT handicap data pending; FT total data pending; HT handicap data pending; HT total data pending.

Pre-match note: Market snapshots are thin; refresh Feijing data again before publishing the final pre-match version.

Final Read: 1:2

Predicted side: Crvena Zvezda win · Actual side: Hapoel Beer Sheva win · side missed

Using the full-time handicap, totals, comparable market buckets and half-time market, the model's full-time first pick for Hapoel Beer Sheva vs Crvena Zvezda is 1:2 (14.6%). Crvena Zvezda side rates higher. This match uses a DeepSeek AI sidecar factor. The AI signal only applies a small candidate-score reweighting and does not override the market/history main model by itself. AI note: 客队实力更强，主队防守漏洞明显，但具备反击偷分可能；半场或闷平，下半场客队压制发力，关注1-2、1-1、1-3等比分。天气晴朗、中立场，外部信息有限。 HT first pick is 0:0 (58.0%); HT draw probability is 63.5%, so the model still respects early caution. Exact-score outputs are probability rankings for pre-match research and review.

Risk note: exact scores are low-hit-rate events. The model output is a probability ranking, not a certainty; late market moves, lineups, red cards and early goals can reshape the distribution.

Sources

Feijing · fixtures, results, Asian handicap, totals, half-time markets, Europe 1X2 · Local history database · historical market lines, full-time scores, half-time scores · DeepSeek · AI sidecar context, bounded candidate reweighting only