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08-20 03:00 CST · UEFA Champions League · Separate HT/FT models

Ha

Hapoel Beer Sheva

Home side / left market direction

Full-time first pick 1:1 Probability 18.4% · Low-total exact zone Low-total exact zone: 1:1 18.4%; 2:1 15.2%; 1:2 11.5% Half-time first pick 0:0 (62.2%)
Sa

Sabah FK Baku

Away side / right market direction

Five-Factor Read

1. Market strength Hapoel Beer Sheva side rates higher

The handicap leans toward Hapoel Beer Sheva; the market prices the home side as stronger.

2. Form and pace 0:0

HT first pick is 0:0 (62.2%); HT draw probability is 66.0%, so the model still respects early caution.

3. AI Sidecar Read FT total 2.50

This match uses a DeepSeek AI sidecar factor. The AI signal only applies a small candidate-score reweighting and does not override the market/history main model by itself. AI note: 中立场+高温可能压低节奏；主队防守漏洞大，客队偷分机会不低；阵容数据缺失，不确定性高。

4. Venue factor neutral / heat

Venue: 特纳体育场. Neutral venue. Weather/temperature: 天晴, 30℃～31℃. Neither side has a clear host-country edge, so the venue read mainly removes normal home advantage and pushes the decision back to market, lineup and tournament context. Higher temperature raises fatigue risk and late-game tempo drop risk.

5. Sample and soft factors Usable sample

139 comparable matches; useful for probability ranking

Full-Time Score Distribution

1:1 18.4%
2:1 15.2%
1:2 11.5%
2:2 10.9%
3:1 5.6%
1:0 4.1%
1:3 3.9%
0:0 3.7%
FT market: side line 0.25 · total 2.50 · Bucket ah_ou:0.25/2.5
Score cluster: Low-total exact zone: 1:1 18.4%; 2:1 15.2%; 1:2 11.5%

Half-Time Score Distribution

0:0 62.2%
1:0 14.9%
0:1 13.5%
1:1 3.7%
2:0 1.9%
0:2 1.8%
2:1 0.6%
1:2 0.6%
HT market: side line 0.00 · total 1.00
Hapoel Beer Sheva win36.7%
Draw35.2%
Sabah FK Baku win28.1%
Hapoel Beer Sheva expected goals1.65
Sabah FK Baku expected goals1.48
Under 3.563.3%
FT temperature0.95
Empirical weight63.5%
Sample size139
Europe 1X2home 39.1% / draw 26.7% / away 34.2%

Key Variables

First-goal path Hapoel Beer Sheva benefits most from opening the scoring; if HT stays 0:0, the FT distribution compresses toward lower scores.
Deciding factor Draw probability is 35.2%, so the exact-score set should keep draw and one-goal-margin scripts alive.
Risk point Under 3.5 is 63.3%; if the live total moves up materially, rerun the model.

Pre-Match Update · Market Movement

Published 2026-08-25 00:37:43 CST (started/finished about 117h 38m ago) | Snapshot window: pending -> 2026-08-25 00:37:43

First snapshotFT handicap 待补 · total 待补
Latest marketFT handicap 0.25 · total 2.5

Movement: FT handicap data pending; FT total data pending; HT handicap data pending; HT total data pending.

Pre-match note: Market snapshots are thin; refresh Feijing data again before publishing the final pre-match version.

Final Read: 1:1

Predicted side: Hapoel Beer Sheva win · Actual side: Hapoel Beer Sheva win · side aligned

Using the full-time handicap, totals, comparable market buckets and half-time market, the model's full-time first pick for Hapoel Beer Sheva vs Sabah FK Baku is 1:1 (18.4%). Hapoel Beer Sheva side rates higher. This match uses a DeepSeek AI sidecar factor. The AI signal only applies a small candidate-score reweighting and does not override the market/history main model by itself. AI note: 中立场+高温可能压低节奏；主队防守漏洞大，客队偷分机会不低；阵容数据缺失，不确定性高。 HT first pick is 0:0 (62.2%); HT draw probability is 66.0%, so the model still respects early caution. Exact-score outputs are probability rankings for pre-match research and review.

Risk note: exact scores are low-hit-rate events. The model output is a probability ranking, not a certainty; late market moves, lineups, red cards and early goals can reshape the distribution.

Sources

Feijing · fixtures, results, Asian handicap, totals, half-time markets, Europe 1X2 · Local history database · historical market lines, full-time scores, half-time scores · DeepSeek · AI sidecar context, bounded candidate reweighting only