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08-12 01:00 CST · UEFA Champions League · Separate HT/FT models

Ka

Kauno Zalgiris

Home side / left market direction

Full-time first pick 1:1 Probability 18.9% · Low-total exact zone Low-total exact zone: 1:1 18.9%; 1:2 13.4%; 2:1 8.6% Half-time first pick 0:0 (48.8%)
Di

Dinamo Zagreb

Away side / right market direction

Five-Factor Read

1. Market strength Dinamo Zagreb side rates higher

The handicap leans toward Dinamo Zagreb; the market prices the away side as stronger.

2. Form and pace 0:0

HT first pick is 0:0 (48.8%); HT draw probability is 55.3%, so the model still respects early caution.

3. AI Sidecar Read FT total 2.50

This match uses a DeepSeek AI sidecar factor. The AI signal only applies a small candidate-score reweighting and does not override the market/history main model by itself. AI note: 客队整体占优，主队主场反击有偷分可能；节奏数据偏慢但进球分布开放，阵容样本薄导致不确定性较高。

4. Venue factor non-neutral / normal weather

Venue: 卡诺扎尔吉里奥體育場. Non-neutral venue. Weather/temperature: 阴天, 17℃～18℃. The schedule marks this as non-neutral, so home/away identity remains a weak background factor. Weather and temperature do not show a clear tempo-suppression signal.

5. Sample and soft factors Usable sample

203 comparable matches; useful for probability ranking

Full-Time Score Distribution

1:1 18.9%
1:2 13.4%
2:1 8.6%
2:2 7.3%
0:1 6.9%
1:3 6.2%
0:2 5.1%
3:1 3.6%
FT market: side line -1.00 · total 2.50 · Bucket side_ou:away_favored/2.5
Score cluster: Low-total exact zone: 1:1 18.9%; 1:2 13.4%; 2:1 8.6%

Half-Time Score Distribution

0:0 48.8%
0:1 24.4%
1:0 9.4%
0:2 6.8%
1:1 6.4%
1:2 1.2%
0:3 1.0%
2:0 0.8%
HT market: side line -0.50 · total 1.00
Kauno Zalgiris win22.7%
Draw31.4%
Dinamo Zagreb win45.9%
Kauno Zalgiris expected goals1.30
Dinamo Zagreb expected goals1.76
Under 3.564.4%
FT temperature0.95
Empirical weight58.0%
Sample size203
Europe 1X2home 16.2% / draw 21.7% / away 62.0%

Key Variables

First-goal path Dinamo Zagreb benefits most from opening the scoring; if HT stays 0:0, the FT distribution compresses toward lower scores.
Deciding factor Draw probability is 31.4%, so the exact-score set should keep draw and one-goal-margin scripts alive.
Risk point Under 3.5 is 64.4%; if the live total moves up materially, rerun the model.

Pre-Match Update · Market Movement

Published 2026-08-25 00:37:43 CST (started/finished about 311h 38m ago) | Snapshot window: pending -> 2026-08-25 00:37:43

First snapshotFT handicap 待补 · total 待补
Latest marketFT handicap -1 · total 2.5

Movement: FT handicap data pending; FT total data pending; HT handicap data pending; HT total data pending.

Pre-match note: Market snapshots are thin; refresh Feijing data again before publishing the final pre-match version.

Final Read: 1:1

Predicted side: Dinamo Zagreb win · Actual side: Dinamo Zagreb win · side aligned

Using the full-time handicap, totals, comparable market buckets and half-time market, the model's full-time first pick for Kauno Zalgiris vs Dinamo Zagreb is 1:1 (18.9%). Dinamo Zagreb side rates higher. This match uses a DeepSeek AI sidecar factor. The AI signal only applies a small candidate-score reweighting and does not override the market/history main model by itself. AI note: 客队整体占优，主队主场反击有偷分可能；节奏数据偏慢但进球分布开放，阵容样本薄导致不确定性较高。 HT first pick is 0:0 (48.8%); HT draw probability is 55.3%, so the model still respects early caution. Exact-score outputs are probability rankings for pre-match research and review.

Risk note: exact scores are low-hit-rate events. The model output is a probability ranking, not a certainty; late market moves, lineups, red cards and early goals can reshape the distribution.

Sources

Feijing · fixtures, results, Asian handicap, totals, half-time markets, Europe 1X2 · Local history database · historical market lines, full-time scores, half-time scores · DeepSeek · AI sidecar context, bounded candidate reweighting only