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UEFA Champions League · Score Research

08-05 01:30 CST · UEFA Champions League · Separate HT/FT models

Le

Levski Sofia

Home side / left market direction

Full-time first pick 2:1 Probability 15.7% · Low-total exact zone Low-total exact zone: 2:1 15.7%; 3:1 9.2%; 1:0 7.3% Half-time first pick 0:0 (61.0%)
FC

FC Kairat Almaty

Away side / right market direction

Five-Factor Read

1. Market strength Levski Sofia side rates higher

The handicap leans toward Levski Sofia; the market prices the home side as stronger.

2. Form and pace 0:0

HT first pick is 0:0 (61.0%); HT draw probability is 65.1%, so the model still respects early caution.

3. AI Sidecar Read FT total 2.25

This match uses a DeepSeek AI sidecar factor. The AI signal only applies a small candidate-score reweighting and does not override the market/history main model by itself. AI note: 主队让0.75，胜率过半，节奏偏慢；客队防线数据差，有偷球能力，总进球倾向2-3球；高温可能抑制节奏，阵容信息不足。

4. Venue factor non-neutral / heat

Venue: 阿斯柏鲁卓夫球场. Non-neutral venue. Weather/temperature: 间中有云, 30℃～31℃. The schedule marks this as non-neutral, so home/away identity remains a weak background factor. Higher temperature raises fatigue risk and late-game tempo drop risk. Together with the totals line and Under 3.5 probability, the venue layer supports a lower-tempo or lower-margin script rather than pushing the score upward.

5. Sample and soft factors Usable sample

102 comparable matches; useful for probability ranking

Full-Time Score Distribution

2:1 15.7%
3:1 9.2%
1:0 7.3%
2:0 6.1%
4:1 3.5%
3:2 2.9%
3:0 2.9%
4:0 1.1%
FT market: side line 0.75 · total 2.25 · Bucket ah_ou:0.75/2.0
Score cluster: Low-total exact zone: 2:1 15.7%; 3:1 9.2%; 1:0 7.3%

Half-Time Score Distribution

0:0 61.0%
1:0 20.0%
0:1 8.8%
1:1 4.0%
2:0 2.5%
0:2 1.2%
2:1 0.9%
3:0 0.6%
HT market: side line 0.25 · total 1.00
Levski Sofia win51.9%
Draw35.0%
FC Kairat Almaty win13.1%
Levski Sofia expected goals1.78
FC Kairat Almaty expected goals1.05
Under 3.570.7%
FT temperature0.95
Empirical weight56.0%
Sample size102
Europe 1X2home 56.3% / draw 27.2% / away 16.5%

Key Variables

First-goal path Levski Sofia benefits most from opening the scoring; if HT stays 0:0, the FT distribution compresses toward lower scores.
Deciding factor Draw probability is 35.0%, so the exact-score set should keep draw and one-goal-margin scripts alive.
Risk point Under 3.5 is 70.7%; if the live total moves up materially, rerun the model.

Pre-Match Update · Market Movement

Published 2026-08-25 00:37:43 CST (started/finished about 479h 8m ago) | Snapshot window: pending -> 2026-08-25 00:37:43

First snapshotFT handicap 待补 · total 待补
Latest marketFT handicap 0.75 · total 2.25

Movement: FT handicap data pending; FT total data pending; HT handicap data pending; HT total data pending.

Pre-match note: Market snapshots are thin; refresh Feijing data again before publishing the final pre-match version.

Final Read: 2:1

Predicted side: Levski Sofia win · Actual side: Levski Sofia win · side aligned

Using the full-time handicap, totals, comparable market buckets and half-time market, the model's full-time first pick for Levski Sofia vs FC Kairat Almaty is 2:1 (15.7%). Levski Sofia side rates higher. This match uses a DeepSeek AI sidecar factor. The AI signal only applies a small candidate-score reweighting and does not override the market/history main model by itself. AI note: 主队让0.75，胜率过半，节奏偏慢；客队防线数据差，有偷球能力，总进球倾向2-3球；高温可能抑制节奏，阵容信息不足。 HT first pick is 0:0 (61.0%); HT draw probability is 65.1%, so the model still respects early caution. Exact-score outputs are probability rankings for pre-match research and review.

Risk note: exact scores are low-hit-rate events. The model output is a probability ranking, not a certainty; late market moves, lineups, red cards and early goals can reshape the distribution.

Sources

Feijing · fixtures, results, Asian handicap, totals, half-time markets, Europe 1X2 · Local history database · historical market lines, full-time scores, half-time scores · DeepSeek · AI sidecar context, bounded candidate reweighting only