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08-12 03:00 CST · UEFA Champions League · Separate HT/FT models

Ly

Lyon

Home side / left market direction

Full-time first pick 2:1 Probability 11.8% · High-total score cluster High-total score cluster: 2:1 11.8%; 3:1 9.0%; 4:1 6.8%; 3:0 6.7%; 4:0 4.0%; 4:2 3.1%; 3:2 2.9%; 5:1 2.7% Half-time first pick 0:0 (39.9%)
AC

AC Sparta Prague

Away side / right market direction

Five-Factor Read

1. Market strength Lyon side rates higher

The handicap leans toward Lyon; the market prices the home side as stronger.

2. Form and pace 0:0

HT first pick is 0:0 (39.9%); HT draw probability is 47.5%, so the model still respects early caution.

3. AI Sidecar Read FT total 3.25

This match uses a DeepSeek AI sidecar factor. The AI signal only applies a small candidate-score reweighting and does not override the market/history main model by itself. AI note: 里昂主场攻击力强且让球1.5，客队捷甲第10实力差距大；但33-34℃高温可能抑制节奏，需警惕进球数不及预期。

4. Venue factor non-neutral / heat

Venue: 里昂奥林匹克公园球场. Non-neutral venue. Weather/temperature: 天晴, 33℃～34℃. The schedule marks this as non-neutral, so home/away identity remains a weak background factor. Higher temperature raises fatigue risk and late-game tempo drop risk. Together with the totals line, the venue layer can support a more open upper tail.

5. Sample and soft factors Usable sample

58 comparable matches; useful for probability ranking

Full-Time Score Distribution

2:1 11.8%
3:1 9.0%
2:0 7.3%
4:1 6.8%
3:0 6.7%
1:0 5.3%
4:0 4.0%
4:2 3.1%
FT market: side line 1.50 · total 3.25 · Bucket ah_ou:1.5/3.0
Score cluster: High-total score cluster: 2:1 11.8%; 3:1 9.0%; 4:1 6.8%; 3:0 6.7%; 4:0 4.0%; 4:2 3.1%; 3:2 2.9%; 5:1 2.7%

Half-Time Score Distribution

0:0 39.9%
1:0 27.9%
2:0 10.3%
1:1 7.4%
0:1 6.5%
3:0 2.7%
2:1 2.1%
4:0 1.1%
HT market: side line 0.75 · total 1.25
Lyon win66.8%
Draw21.1%
AC Sparta Prague win12.1%
Lyon expected goals2.48
AC Sparta Prague expected goals1.09
Under 3.552.5%
FT temperature0.95
Empirical weight42.0%
Sample size58
Europe 1X2home 69.7% / draw 17.5% / away 12.9%

Key Variables

First-goal path Lyon benefits most from opening the scoring; if HT stays 0:0, the FT distribution compresses toward lower scores.
Deciding factor Draw probability is 21.1%, so the exact-score set should keep draw and one-goal-margin scripts alive.
Risk point Under 3.5 is 52.5%; if the live total moves up materially, rerun the model.

Pre-Match Update · Market Movement

Published 2026-08-25 00:37:43 CST (started/finished about 309h 38m ago) | Snapshot window: pending -> 2026-08-25 00:37:43

First snapshotFT handicap 待补 · total 待补
Latest marketFT handicap 1.5 · total 3.25

Movement: FT handicap data pending; FT total data pending; HT handicap data pending; HT total data pending.

Pre-match note: Market snapshots are thin; refresh Feijing data again before publishing the final pre-match version.

Final Read: 2:1

Predicted side: Lyon win · Actual side: Lyon win · side aligned

Using the full-time handicap, totals, comparable market buckets and half-time market, the model's full-time first pick for Lyon vs AC Sparta Prague is 2:1 (11.8%). Lyon side rates higher. This match uses a DeepSeek AI sidecar factor. The AI signal only applies a small candidate-score reweighting and does not override the market/history main model by itself. AI note: 里昂主场攻击力强且让球1.5，客队捷甲第10实力差距大；但33-34℃高温可能抑制节奏，需警惕进球数不及预期。 HT first pick is 0:0 (39.9%); HT draw probability is 47.5%, so the model still respects early caution. Exact-score outputs are probability rankings for pre-match research and review.

Risk note: exact scores are low-hit-rate events. The model output is a probability ranking, not a certainty; late market moves, lineups, red cards and early goals can reshape the distribution.

Sources

Feijing · fixtures, results, Asian handicap, totals, half-time markets, Europe 1X2 · Local history database · historical market lines, full-time scores, half-time scores · DeepSeek · AI sidecar context, bounded candidate reweighting only