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08-12 02:30 CST · UEFA Champions League · Separate HT/FT models

St

Sturm Graz

Home side / left market direction

Full-time first pick 1:2 Probability 13.9% · Standard score cluster Standard score cluster: 1:2 13.9%; 1:3 6.6%; 0:1 4.3%; 0:2 4.3% Half-time first pick 0:0 (56.8%)
Fe

Fenerbahce

Away side / right market direction

Five-Factor Read

1. Market strength Fenerbahce side rates higher

The handicap leans toward Fenerbahce; the market prices the away side as stronger.

2. Form and pace 0:0

HT first pick is 0:0 (56.8%); HT draw probability is 62.9%, so the model still respects early caution.

3. AI Sidecar Read FT total 3.00

This match uses a DeepSeek AI sidecar factor. The AI signal only applies a small candidate-score reweighting and does not override the market/history main model by itself. AI note: 客队攻击占优，主队防守不差，总进球线3.0，1:2权重最高。但天气炎热或限制节奏，半场0:0概率高。

4. Venue factor non-neutral / heat

Venue: UPC球场. Non-neutral venue. Weather/temperature: 多云, 30℃～31℃. The schedule marks this as non-neutral, so home/away identity remains a weak background factor. Higher temperature raises fatigue risk and late-game tempo drop risk. Together with the totals line, the venue layer can support a more open upper tail.

5. Sample and soft factors Usable sample

86 comparable matches; useful for probability ranking

Full-Time Score Distribution

1:2 13.9%
1:3 6.6%
0:1 4.3%
0:2 4.3%
1:4 3.2%
2:3 3.0%
2:4 2.6%
0:3 2.3%
FT market: side line -0.75 · total 3.00 · Bucket ah_ou:-0.75/3.0
Score cluster: Standard score cluster: 1:2 13.9%; 1:3 6.6%; 0:1 4.3%; 0:2 4.3%

Half-Time Score Distribution

0:0 56.8%
0:1 16.8%
1:0 12.5%
1:1 5.9%
0:2 3.5%
2:0 2.0%
1:2 0.9%
2:1 0.5%
HT market: side line -0.25 · total 1.25
Sturm Graz win25.9%
Draw28.3%
Fenerbahce win45.7%
Sturm Graz expected goals1.46
Fenerbahce expected goals1.88
Under 3.558.5%
FT temperature0.95
Empirical weight51.8%
Sample size86
Europe 1X2home 23.6% / draw 23.6% / away 52.7%

Key Variables

First-goal path Fenerbahce benefits most from opening the scoring; if HT stays 0:0, the FT distribution compresses toward lower scores.
Deciding factor Draw probability is 28.3%, so the exact-score set should keep draw and one-goal-margin scripts alive.
Risk point Under 3.5 is 58.5%; if the live total moves up materially, rerun the model.

Pre-Match Update · Market Movement

Published 2026-08-25 00:37:43 CST (started/finished about 310h 8m ago) | Snapshot window: pending -> 2026-08-25 00:37:43

First snapshotFT handicap 待补 · total 待补
Latest marketFT handicap -0.75 · total 3

Movement: FT handicap data pending; FT total data pending; HT handicap data pending; HT total data pending.

Pre-match note: Market snapshots are thin; refresh Feijing data again before publishing the final pre-match version.

Final Read: 1:2

Predicted side: Fenerbahce win · Actual side: Fenerbahce win · side aligned

Using the full-time handicap, totals, comparable market buckets and half-time market, the model's full-time first pick for Sturm Graz vs Fenerbahce is 1:2 (13.9%). Fenerbahce side rates higher. This match uses a DeepSeek AI sidecar factor. The AI signal only applies a small candidate-score reweighting and does not override the market/history main model by itself. AI note: 客队攻击占优，主队防守不差，总进球线3.0，1:2权重最高。但天气炎热或限制节奏，半场0:0概率高。 HT first pick is 0:0 (56.8%); HT draw probability is 62.9%, so the model still respects early caution. Exact-score outputs are probability rankings for pre-match research and review.

Risk note: exact scores are low-hit-rate events. The model output is a probability ranking, not a certainty; late market moves, lineups, red cards and early goals can reshape the distribution.

Sources

Feijing · fixtures, results, Asian handicap, totals, half-time markets, Europe 1X2 · Local history database · historical market lines, full-time scores, half-time scores · DeepSeek · AI sidecar context, bounded candidate reweighting only