USL Championship · Score Research

08-16 09:30 CST · USL Championship · Separate HT/FT models

New Mexico United

Home side / left market direction

Full-time first pick 1:1 Probability 18.8% · Low-total exact zone Low-total exact zone: 1:1 18.8%; 2:1 16.1%; 1:2 10.6% Half-time first pick 0:0 (62.2%)

FC Tulsa

Away side / right market direction

Five-Factor Read

1. Market strength New Mexico United side rates higher

The handicap leans toward New Mexico United; the market prices the home side as stronger.

2. Form and pace 0:0

HT first pick is 0:0 (62.2%); HT draw probability is 66.0%, so the model still respects early caution.

3. AI Sidecar Read FT total 2.50

This match uses a DeepSeek AI sidecar factor. The AI signal only applies a small candidate-score reweighting and does not override the market/history main model by itself. AI note: 两队节奏慢、攻击弱，但防线有漏洞，客场队进攻稍强有机会进球。高温可能压低节奏，总进球倾向小球。

4. Venue factor Non-neutral venue

Venue: venue pending. Non-neutral venue. Weather/temperature: 天晴, 31°C. The schedule marks this as non-neutral, so home/away identity remains a weak background factor. Higher temperature raises fatigue risk and late-game tempo drop risk.

5. Sample and soft factors Usable sample

139 comparable matches; useful for probability ranking

Full-Time Score Distribution

1:1 18.8%

2:1 16.1%

1:2 10.6%

2:2 10.4%

3:1 6.1%

1:0 4.7%

0:0 4.1%

3:2 3.4%

FT market: side line 0.25 · total 2.50 · Bucket ah_ou:0.25/2.5

Score cluster: Low-total exact zone: 1:1 18.8%; 2:1 16.1%; 1:2 10.6%

Half-Time Score Distribution

0:0 62.2%

1:0 15.5%

0:1 13.0%

1:1 3.6%

2:0 2.0%

0:2 1.6%

2:1 0.6%

1:2 0.6%

HT market: side line 0.00 · total 1.00

New Mexico United win39.9%

Draw35.2%

FC Tulsa win24.9%

New Mexico United expected goals1.66

FC Tulsa expected goals1.38

Under 3.565.5%

FT temperature0.95

Empirical weight63.5%

Sample size139

Europe 1X2home 42.9% / draw 26.3% / away 30.8%

Key Variables

First-goal path New Mexico United benefits most from opening the scoring; if HT stays 0:0, the FT distribution compresses toward lower scores.

Deciding factor Draw probability is 35.2%, so the exact-score set should keep draw and one-goal-margin scripts alive.

Risk point Under 3.5 is 65.5%; if the live total moves up materially, rerun the model.

Pre-Match Update · Market Movement

Published 2026-08-25 00:38:22 CST (started/finished about 207h 9m ago) | Snapshot window: pending -> 2026-08-25 00:38:22

First snapshotFT handicap 待补 · total 待补

Latest marketFT handicap 0.25 · total 2.5

Movement: FT handicap data pending; FT total data pending; HT handicap data pending; HT total data pending.

Pre-match note: Market snapshots are thin; refresh Feijing data again before publishing the final pre-match version.

Final Read: 1:1

Predicted side: New Mexico United win · Actual side: New Mexico United win · side aligned

Using the full-time handicap, totals, comparable market buckets and half-time market, the model's full-time first pick for New Mexico United vs FC Tulsa is 1:1 (18.8%). New Mexico United side rates higher. This match uses a DeepSeek AI sidecar factor. The AI signal only applies a small candidate-score reweighting and does not override the market/history main model by itself. AI note: 两队节奏慢、攻击弱，但防线有漏洞，客场队进攻稍强有机会进球。高温可能压低节奏，总进球倾向小球。 HT first pick is 0:0 (62.2%); HT draw probability is 66.0%, so the model still respects early caution. Exact-score outputs are probability rankings for pre-match research and review.

Risk note: exact scores are low-hit-rate events. The model output is a probability ranking, not a certainty; late market moves, lineups, red cards and early goals can reshape the distribution.

Sources

Feijing · fixtures, results, Asian handicap, totals, half-time markets, Europe 1X2 · Local history database · historical market lines, full-time scores, half-time scores · DeepSeek · AI sidecar context, bounded candidate reweighting only