USL Championship · Score Research

08-23 09:00 CST · USL Championship · Separate HT/FT models

San Antonio

Home side / left market direction

Full-time first pick 1:1 Probability 17.8% · Low-total exact zone Low-total exact zone: 1:1 17.8%; 2:1 15.9%; 2:2 10.9% Half-time first pick 0:0 (62.2%)

Oakland Roots

Away side / right market direction

Five-Factor Read

1. Market strength San Antonio side rates higher

The handicap leans toward San Antonio; the market prices the home side as stronger.

2. Form and pace 0:0

HT first pick is 0:0 (62.2%); HT draw probability is 66.0%, so the model still respects early caution.

3. AI Sidecar Read FT total 2.50

This match uses a DeepSeek AI sidecar factor. The AI signal only applies a small candidate-score reweighting and does not override the market/history main model by itself. AI note: 高温37°C或压制节奏；主队排名与攻势略优但让球浅，客队防守稳定；无阵容战意数据，置信度低。

4. Venue factor Non-neutral venue

Venue: venue pending. Non-neutral venue. Weather/temperature: 间中有云, 33°C. The schedule marks this as non-neutral, so home/away identity remains a weak background factor. Higher temperature raises fatigue risk and late-game tempo drop risk.

5. Sample and soft factors Usable sample

139 comparable matches; useful for probability ranking

Full-Time Score Distribution

1:1 17.8%

2:1 15.9%

2:2 10.9%

1:2 10.5%

3:1 6.4%

1:0 4.3%

3:2 3.8%

0:0 3.6%

FT market: side line 0.25 · total 2.50 · Bucket ah_ou:0.25/2.5

Score cluster: Low-total exact zone: 1:1 17.8%; 2:1 15.9%; 2:2 10.9%

Half-Time Score Distribution

0:0 62.2%

1:0 15.5%

0:1 13.0%

1:1 3.6%

2:0 2.0%

0:2 1.6%

2:1 0.6%

1:2 0.6%

HT market: side line 0.00 · total 1.00

San Antonio win40.4%

Draw34.5%

Oakland Roots win25.1%

San Antonio expected goals1.72

Oakland Roots expected goals1.43

Under 3.562.6%

FT temperature0.95

Empirical weight63.5%

Sample size139

Europe 1X2home 41.7% / draw 26.0% / away 32.3%

Key Variables

First-goal path San Antonio benefits most from opening the scoring; if HT stays 0:0, the FT distribution compresses toward lower scores.

Deciding factor Draw probability is 34.5%, so the exact-score set should keep draw and one-goal-margin scripts alive.

Risk point Under 3.5 is 62.6%; if the live total moves up materially, rerun the model.

Pre-Match Update · Market Movement

Published 2026-08-25 00:38:22 CST (started/finished about 39h 39m ago) | Snapshot window: pending -> 2026-08-25 00:38:22

First snapshotFT handicap 待补 · total 待补

Latest marketFT handicap 0.25 · total 2.5

Movement: FT handicap data pending; FT total data pending; HT handicap data pending; HT total data pending.

Pre-match note: Market snapshots are thin; refresh Feijing data again before publishing the final pre-match version.

Final Read: 1:1

Predicted side: San Antonio win · Actual side: Oakland Roots win · side missed

Using the full-time handicap, totals, comparable market buckets and half-time market, the model's full-time first pick for San Antonio vs Oakland Roots is 1:1 (17.8%). San Antonio side rates higher. This match uses a DeepSeek AI sidecar factor. The AI signal only applies a small candidate-score reweighting and does not override the market/history main model by itself. AI note: 高温37°C或压制节奏；主队排名与攻势略优但让球浅，客队防守稳定；无阵容战意数据，置信度低。 HT first pick is 0:0 (62.2%); HT draw probability is 66.0%, so the model still respects early caution. Exact-score outputs are probability rankings for pre-match research and review.

Risk note: exact scores are low-hit-rate events. The model output is a probability ranking, not a certainty; late market moves, lineups, red cards and early goals can reshape the distribution.

Sources

Feijing · fixtures, results, Asian handicap, totals, half-time markets, Europe 1X2 · Local history database · historical market lines, full-time scores, half-time scores · DeepSeek · AI sidecar context, bounded candidate reweighting only